The activity in global markets on Monday was moderately positive amid the US holiday and the publication of mixed US employment data released last Friday.
Europe's Monday trading ended on a positive note on the wave of news about the growth of economic activity in the region, and the noticeable declining fears among investors that the Fed may decide to change the monetary course given the sharp increase in inflationary pressure.
The commodity market is also dominated by positive sentiment, which is associated with the weakness of the US dollar and the decline in the Treasury yield in the United States that precisely signals the growth of these sentiments. Crude oil prices surged again to new local pre-pandemic highs.
Earlier, futures for major European and American stock indices are generally traded in the negative zone, which does not yet fit into the general optimistic sentiment. Nevertheless, the situation is not over yet. It may change for real around the opening of the American trading session.
In the currency market, the ICE dollar index remains under pressure after last week's local growth and is currently holding above the level of 92.00 points. During the morning trading, the US dollar declined against all major currencies. Most notably, it falls against the New Zealand and Australian dollars, which are growing amid the growth in the value of commodity assets.
Analyzing everything that is happening, we believe that there will most likely be overall positive dynamics in world markets, despite the current negative outlook in the futures market of stock indices.
First, Americans will fully play out the publication of employment data in their country, which quite often happens if it is impossible to do this on Monday because of the holiday. Second, as previously noted, the tension in the market has subsided, which not only supports the demand for the purchase of risky assets but also presses down the dollar exchange rate against the main currencies in the currency market.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair broke through the level of 1.1885. A consolidation above which will lead to a price growth to 1.1930.
The USD/CAD declined below the support line and is near the level of 1.2300. The continuation of growth in crude oil prices and pressure from the growth of Treasury yields on the US dollar will lead to the pair's decline to 1.2230.