EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair attempted to continue its growth on Friday. However, it returned to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1919) by the end of the trading day. The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and new growth in the direction of the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1985). Closing quotes under the Fibo level of 61.8% will work in favor of the US dollar and continue falling towards the level of 76.4% (1.1837). The information background on Friday was relatively weak. However, if you look at the movement of the euro/dollar pair in the last five days, it becomes clear that bull traders are having a very hard time right now. After the collapse occurred a week ago, the European currency showed growth with frank difficulty.
In fairness, it should be noted that there were few of them. On Friday, for example, there was no single interesting event in the European Union, and in the United States, data on personal expenses and personal income of Americans were released. The first indicator was 0.0%, and the second - 2% in May. These figures can be called weak. However, they did not affect the mood of traders too much. The US dollar fell approximately before the release of these statistics, after which it began to grow, although, on the contrary, it would be more logical. Thus, statistics are not the most important at this time, and traders are not eager to pay attention to it. The activity of traders also leaves much to be desired. This week, all the most interesting things will happen in the US on Friday, when the most important Nonfarm Payrolls report for May will be released. There will be economic reports on the remaining days. However, there will not be many important ones among them.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes closed under a descending trend corridor. However, this does not change the essence of the graphical picture. The pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 50.0% (1.1978). However, the reversal in favor of the US currency occurred without rebounding from this level. In any case, the activity of traders is very weak now, and there are few signals on the two lower charts.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and consolidated under the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). Thus, the decline in quotes can be continued in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.1729).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation over the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 25, the calendar of economic events in the European Union was empty, and in America, four reports at once did not arouse any interest among traders.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On June 28, the calendars of economic events in America and the European Union are empty. Thus, there will be no information background today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report showed that during the reporting week, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more "bearish." Major players have closed 4,717 long contracts and opened 24,017 short contracts. Thus, the changes shown in the last report are really serious. But, of course, we should not forget that these serious changes are related to the reaction of traders to the Fed meeting, which took place on Wednesday before last. Therefore, the following COT report may be much calmer.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to sell the pair if the quotes close at 61.8% (1.1919) on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1837. However, I recommend buying the pair in case of a new rebound of quotes from the level of 1.1919 on the hourly chart with targets of 1.1985 and 1.2051.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" are small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.