EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair traded quite calmly and passed only 58 points on Wednesdays. Again, not a minuscule value, but a rather weak value. Although yesterday both the European Union and the United States published several macroeconomic reports. Moreover, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde delivered a speech. However, Lagarde's speech took place in the evening, when traders definitely should not have opened new trade deals, and the reports, as we warned yesterday, turned out to be of little significance for market participants. Thus, the pair was trading more on technique for the entire day, continuing to correct after last week's collapse. It should be noted that the business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors of the European Union were encouraging, as both indicators increased in comparison with the values of the previous month. In the United States, business activity in the service sector declined, while it increased in the manufacturing sector. However, one has only to look at the chart, where the numbers "1" and "2" mark the time when these reports were published, and it immediately becomes clear that traders did not react to them. Let's now analyze all the trading signals. Unfortunately, the trade was not very successful yesterday. At the very beginning of the European trading session, the price formed two buy signals near the extremum level of 1.1924, as well as near the Kijun-sen line, which was in the morning, exactly where it is now marked in the chart. It was necessary to open long positions here, but since the price reached and immediately bounced off the nearest target of 1.1950, only 15 points were earned on them. But then false sell signals followed. At first, the price bounced off the 1.1950 level, then rebounded again and eventually crossed this level. Here, traders had the right to open short positions on the first signal, hold them during the formation of the second one, and close them when the third one was formed. As a result, there was a loss of 12 points. There was no need to open a deal to buy, since three indistinct signals formed around the level of 1.1950 at once. As a result, the day was completed with only a few points in profit.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. June 24. Jerome Powell did not confirm the "bearish" expectations of traders.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. June 24. Bank of England meeting: the day before. What to expect from members of the monetary committee?
EUR/USD 1H
The EUR/USD pair continues to correct on the hourly timeframe, which is clearly seen in the chart. The dollar tends to decline, which, in principle, is not surprising. The macroeconomic and fundamental background is rather weak this week, so nothing prevents traders from continuing to consolidate the EUR/USD pair. On Thursday, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines. The nearest important levels at this time are 1.1851, 1.1924, 1.1950, 1.1988 and 1.2051, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.2053) and Kijun-sen (1.1907) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. Signals can be rebounds or breakthroughs of these levels and lines. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. No major events scheduled in the European Union on Thursday, while the US will publish its first quarter GDP report in its final estimate, as well as a report on durable goods orders for May and claims for unemployment benefits. Unfortunately, all three of these reports may not generate any reaction from traders. Traders are already familiar with the value of GDP from two previous estimates. Markets have not responded to the report on orders for durable goods for a long time. The report on claims for unemployment benefits is not significant at this time. These reports should not be overlooked, but you need to be prepared that there will be no reaction.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 70 points during the last reporting week (June 8-14). The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report showed that bullish sentiment has slightly weakened among the major players, but these slight changes in the latest reports do not affect the overall picture of the state of affairs in any way. For example, the first indicator in the chart above continues to indicate a bullish trend and the fact that non-commercial traders continue to build long positions over the medium term. Of course, the last three trading days were not included in the last COT report, so it would be better to draw a conclusion after the next report. Nevertheless, based on the information that we already have at our disposal, we cannot conclude that professional traders have begun to look towards selling the euro. In addition, it should be noted that the new COT report was not released on Friday, therefore, it should be expected a little later. Perhaps it will show a serious weakening of the bullish sentiment, but so far we don't have such information. Accordingly, you need to wait for the new COT report and see what information it contains. So far, we note that the total number of open Buy-contracts (longs) for non-commercial traders is twice the total number of Sell-contracts (shorts). The green and red lines of the first indicator move away from each other, and the histogram of the second indicator rises. All this speaks, at least, of the preservation of the bullish mood.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.