EUR/USD – 1H.
During the last trading day, the EUR/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the European currency near the level of 1.2117 and began a new growth process, which at the moment ended near the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2166). I can't say that at this time, the mood of most traders has changed to "bearish." On the hourly chart, there are no benchmarks that could allow us to make such a conclusion. The euro/dollar pair will likely continue to move alternately in different directions without a particular trend. I believe that now we should pay more attention to the 4-hour chart, where there is a trend line. The information background for the pair on Friday was again very strong. By and large, it all came down to one report on Nonfarm Payrolls. After the ADP report on Thursday showed an increase in the number of employees in the private sector by 970 thousand, traders expected that the number of jobs created outside the agricultural sector would also be close to a million. However, in reality, their number was only 559 thousand, which was less than traders expected to see. And it was this information that brought down the dollar, which was beginning to show signs of growth. At the same time, traders did not pay any attention to the unemployment report, which showed a decrease of 0.3% and the report on average hourly wages, which showed an increase of 2%, although traders' expectations were lower. What can we say about retail trade in the Eurozone, to which there was no reaction at all? Thus, traders are now focused on the information that the Fed representatives spoke about. Let me remind you that they focused on inflation and the recovery of the labor market, believing that the latter is not yet strong enough to talk about curtailing the quantitative stimulus program. As you can see, real reports show that the Fed representatives are right.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes completed a new close under the ascending trend line and the level of 1.2223, allowing traders to count on the continuation of the fall in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). There are no emerging divergences in any indicator today. However, the entire movement of the pair is now unstable, and it is very difficult for the US dollar to continue growing.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair closed above the level of 161.8% (1.2027), but at the moment, both lower charts indicate a very likely fall, so the data from them is more important.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On June 4, a large amount of economic information was again published in the European Union and America. Still, most of it was ignored, and the speeches of Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde did not give traders any new information.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On June 7, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States are empty. Thus, the information background will be absent today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which again showed an increase in the "bullish" mood among speculators. The "Non-commercial" category of traders opened only 751 long contracts, but at the same time, got rid of almost 4 thousand short contracts. Thus, speculators continue to contribute to the growth of the European currency in one way or another. In general, the changes in all categories of traders are minimal. In total, 224 long contracts and 2,142 short contracts were closed, which indicates a low activity of significant players in the reporting week.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I do not recommend selling the pair today, as there is no single potential signal on the horizon. Traders currently ignore many levels. I do not recommend buying the pair now, as there is a high probability of changing the direction of the trend to "bearish."
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.