GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the level of 1.4240 on Tuesday, after which they turned in favor of the US currency and began the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.4136). Although the quotes yesterday also performed a close over the sideways trend corridor, at the moment, they are again inside it. Thus, the mood of traders is now uncertain. In general, the current situation in the euro/dollar and pound/dollar pairs is very similar. There are no trends. The quotes move sideways. In both cases, the exchange rate is near the highs for several years. The information background can not have the proper impact to make the movements more active. Yesterday, the UK released the business activity index in the manufacturing sector, which rose to 63.1. But, as you can see in the picture, around the same time, the British dollar began a powerful fall, so it is hardly appropriate to talk about the influence of the information background on the pair's movement.
The same goes for reports from America. At the time they came out, the British pound had already fallen by 85 points. Traders were waiting for Andrew Bailey's speech yesterday because they wanted to see his vision for an interest rate hike next year. Last week, the representative of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vliege, said that the rate could be raised as early as 2022. However, the majority of the monetary committee must support this decision. And in any case, this is not a prospect for the coming months. Still, I wonder what Bailey's opinion is. But he didn't say a word about the rate yesterday.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed an increase to the corrective level of 0.0% (1.4240), a rebound from it and a reversal in favor of the US dollar. Thus, at this time, the process of falling in the direction of the level of 1.4003 has begun. The upward trend corridor continues to indicate the bullish mood of traders. The consolidation of the pair's rate above 1.4240 will increase the chances of the continued growth of the British dollar.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, everything still rests on the trend line, along which the movement of quotes of the pound/dollar pair continues. Closing quotes under this line will work in favor of the US dollar and start falling in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Until this happens, the growth process will continue at the corrective level of 161.8% (1.4812).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
The pound/dollar pair completed a close over the second downward trend line on the weekly chart. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound remain.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Tuesday, there were some interesting events in the UK and the US. However, traders began to get rid of the Briton in the morning, not paying any attention to the reports.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On Wednesday, the calendars of economic events in the United Kingdom and the United States are empty, so the impact of the information background today will be absent.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The COT report of May 25 on the British dollar showed that speculators' "bullish" mood has become stronger. Thus, the British pound can also continue its growth, although it has been trading extremely boring in the last two weeks. During the reporting week, speculators opened only 936 long contracts, but at the same time, reducing the number of short contracts on their hands by 4,693 units. I also note that, unlike the European currency, interest in the British dollar is declining among all categories of traders. In total, they closed 8 thousand contracts during the week.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Purchases of the British dollar are recommended today if there is a rebound from the level of 1.4136 on the hourly chart or the lower border of the side corridor with the target of 1.4216. It was recommended to sell the pound if the rebound from the level of 0.0% (1.4240) on the 4-hour chart is made, with a target of 1.4136. At this time, this position should be kept open.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.