Over the past day, Bitcoin has shown no desire to either restore the upward trend or start a new round of correction. It was a weak day for Bitcoin, which does not happen often. One may get the impression that at this stage of its formation, bitcoin has found, if not a "fair price", then the price of equilibrium between supply and demand, which are now present on the market. Now, everyone is waiting for new data to understand what to do with Bitcoin in the near future. There are two themes that threaten Bitcoin. Topics of a possible tightening of regulation of the cryptocurrency sphere in China and the United States. Recall that in China, financial organizations have been banned from providing any services related to cryptocurrencies, and they also want to ban mining. In the United States, they want to oblige all exchanges and other cryptocurrency companies to provide the Tax Administration with information on all transactions over $10,000, and in addition, they are developing other innovations, since the volume of the cryptocurrency market exceeds $1.5 trillion and many American investors use it for hiding their income, in order to evade paying taxes. Thus, governments are beginning to slowly "tighten the screws", which is very displeasing to investors and traders, who often use bitcoin and other tokens just to remove unnecessary assets from the field of visibility, as well as to make money on investments that are nowhere to be found and cannot be tracked. In general, this news does not add optimism to investors, so no one is eager to buy bitcoin now, even at the current "very attractive prices." We are inclined to believe that the decline in quotes will continue in the medium term, but bitcoin can also consolidate in the range of $32,000 - $42,000 for a couple of months. What we are definitely not expecting is the recovery of the upward trend.
Meanwhile, analysts at JPMorgan said that bitcoin could plunge to $24,000 per coin. The bank believes that after bitcoin fell by more than $30,000 in just a month and a half, institutional interest in this coin has greatly diminished. Thus, according to the bank, the fair price for 1 coin can be between the levels of $24,000 and $36,000. However, in the long term (5-10 years), Bitcoin may grow to $145,000 per coin. Such a "theoretical" mark can be achieved if each investor's portfolio contains equal shares of gold and "digital gold". In this case, their capitalization may become equal, and the price of bitcoin may rise to $145,000 per coin. But now, in the coming years, much will depend on the actions of governments and central banks. We agree with this forecast, as we also believe that in the near future BTC will be prone to fall. But in the long term, it will resume growth, as has happened more than once.
Technically, bitcoin's fuse has faded and it is now trading around the $36,000 level. At this time, investors are in no hurry to buy bitcoin again, and miners get rid of the mined coins. The fundamental background remains unfavorable, so we believe that digital gold has more chances of a return to the $30,500 level than growth. If bitcoin quotes manage to gain a foothold above the 38.2% Fibonacci level - $41,000, then this will slightly increase the likelihood of further growth in digital gold, but traders still need to get to this level.