USD/JPY
Yesterday, the yen tested the strength of the support of the target level of 109.37 for the second time. The support held out and the price turned up, blocking Monday's closing level in today's Asian session. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator turns up in its upper half, that is, in a growing medium-term trend.
The price has revealed its intention to reach the MACD line near the target level of 109.98. Surpassing the level opens an important target of 110.45 – the intersection point of the two lines of the rising and falling price channels of the monthly timeframe.
The price reversed from the target level of 109.37 and the balance indicator line on the four-hour chart. Marlin is still in negative territory, but there is a lot of chance that it will quickly cross the border into the rising area. If the trend is broken by unexpected external circumstances, the probability of which is 20%, and the price consolidates below the level of 109.37 with the transition under the MACD line (109.30), a further decline to the target level of 108.35 (March 10 low) is possible.