Hello, dear colleagues! The situation on the US stock market looks very contradictory, and this is due to the fact that the indices, contrary to the saying: - sell May and go for a walk, did not fall in May, although such an attempt was made by them. It was renewed for June, and looking at the charts, we can assume that everything is still ahead. However, in 2021, many analysts began to pay attention to the yield of US Treasury bonds, and in this article we will analyze why this is important, from the point of view of stock markets, and what is the relationship between stocks and bonds.
In general, investors prefer to invest in stocks, because it brings a greater return. However, in case of danger, money from the stock market is actively moved to the safe haven, which is the bond market. There is no direct correlation between these markets, the relationship is somewhat more complex than it seems at first glance, and in this regard, many readers do not understand: - why is such a sharp reaction of equity capital caused by a relatively small change in the yield of the debt market? Let us examine this question from a practical and theoretical point of view.
There are several reasons for this. If we talk about 10-year bonds, they serve as a benchmark of profitability, with which they compare the income from investment and credit products, including mortgages. However, why did the 0.8% point change in the yield (Figure 1), over several months, cause such a stir in the stock market, and why were high-tech companies among the victims? This question remains a subject for reflection, but I will try to convey my logic.
I may be wrong, but it seems to me that this is due to the fact that high-tech companies, considered growth companies, traditionally do not pay dividends, and their value is so high that it makes no sense to keep them in the portfolio amid the growth of the benchmark yield. In addition, take note that the size of the US debt is huge, and an increase in profitability by only a few percentage points makes it necessary to pay a lot of money for debt service, and this becomes very burdensome for the American economy, living with a hole the size of half the budget.
However, there is nothing better than to consider inter-market relations by comparing asset movement charts. Let's look at how high-tech companies, 10-year bond yields, and the S&P 500 index interact.
Figure 1: US 10-year bond yields comparing XLK tech sector dynamics to S&P 500
As shown in Chart 1, the XLK tech sector and its affiliates outperformed the S&P 500 on the back of declining US bond yields. From January 2019 to August 2020, the yield on the 10-year bond declined from 32 points (3.2%) to 5 points. At the same time, the ratio of companies entering the high-tech sector XLK and companies entering the S&P 500 index (XLK: $ SPX), during the same period, increased from the level of 0.02 to the level of 0.035. However, as soon as bond yields began to rise, in August-September 2020, the companies included in the $ SPX index began to catch up with the high-tech sector, and the sector itself began to decline, and the XLK: $ SPX ratio moved into a range.
Let me remind readers that the XLK high-tech sector includes such companies as Apple Inc., Microsoft Corp, Visa Inc, NVIDIA Corp, MasterCard Inc, PayPal, Adobe Inc, Intel Corp, Cisco Systems Inc, Salesforce.Com Inc and other monsters of the US market... This sector is 21% in the S&P 500 index and 41% in the Nasdaq 100 index.
Thus, we can assume that in the event of an increase in bond yields, the aforementioned companies in their total mass will be under pressure, and we should not invest money in them. Then we will need to find out what is more likely to happen to bond yields? We apply fundamental and technical analysis for this purpose.
Apparently, inflation in the United States will remain at elevated levels for some time. Inflation has an indirect effect on long-term bond yields, but investors cannot ignore it altogether. When inflation is higher than the yield, this leads to losses for investors. And in the current situation, we can assume that bond yields will continue to rise, at least until the Federal Reserve decides to end its quantitative stimulus programs and begins to tighten monetary conditions. There are nuances associated with the curve of the yield curve, but we will not go into them in order not to lose the meaning of what has been said.
In the technical analysis of the 10-year bond yield chart, the following can be stated: - the yield is in an increasing trend, above the level of the average annual values. The indicators of the RSI and MACD indicators also indicate an increasing trend. From above, the movement limits the level of the 4-year moving average MA200, which acts as a dynamic resistance to growth. In this context, we can assume that the current consolidation of profitability is just a stop on the way to its further growth, where the first goal is the level of 20 percentage points. In the future, if the yield growth continues, we can expect to reach the level of 25 p, which is the average value for the yield of 10-year US bonds over the past ten years.
If we consider that the weekly chart determines the dynamics of assets for a period of one to three years, we can assume that the aforementioned companies in the XLK sector will not be a good investment for at least the next year, or until their values become attractive to investors due to the correction what happened in the market. The same companies, by virtue of their weight, will limit the growth of the Nasdaq stock index and the assets of those seeking to copy it, and hence of the companies included in it, through the projection of purchases of exchange-traded funds.
It is clear that there are no rules without exceptions, but the current situation in the US market: - high prices without clear growth prospects, does not make me want to buy shares in the high-tech sector, suggesting the possibility of considering investments in companies of value included in the S&P 500 index, that is, classic companies paying dividends and representing traditional sectors of the economy.
Be careful and careful, follow the rules of money management.