On the four-hour chart, the wave pattern is still absolutely clear and does not require any additions. Recently, the movement of the instrument has been hard to predict, which makes the internal wave pattern of the expected wave 3 of the upward trend section quite unreadable. greatly complicates the internal wave pattern of the expected wave 3 of the upward trend. Now, it can be concluded that the construction of an upward wave 3 in 3 continues, but the inside of this wave of a smaller scale already looks not quite convincing. In general, the quotes is expected to continue to rise with targets located near the 0.0% Fibonacci level, which is the peak of the last wave 5 to 5. Considering the current wave pattern, this level is expected to be broken through successfully, as the entire wave 3 can turn out to be very long, in accordance with wave 1 of the upward trend. In addition, the entire section of the trend should take on an impulse, that is, a five-wave form. Accordingly, Wave 5 will also be built in its composition. There are still no alternative wave patterns now.
The news background slightly improved on Thursday. All the most interesting statistics came out in the US, but in general, it can be called neutral. It is worth noting that the markets did not react to these statistics. Throughout the day, the EUR/USD pair was in a 40-point range, and changes took place only within it. Thus, the markets may have responded to the economic reports with small sales of the US dollar, but did this lead to the pair's increase by 20 basis points? Now let's look at the statistics themselves. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was 406 thousand, against the expected 444 thousand, while the number of repeated applications for benefits was 3642 thousand against the expected 3738 thousand.
The GDP in the first quarter remained unchanged in the second estimate – 6.4%, although the markets were expecting an increase to 6.5%. The report on orders for durable goods is the only one that turned out to be very weak, whose volume in April declined by 1.3% instead of growth by 0.8%. Thus, the markets could really sell the US currency after this data, but, it was mentioned that no major price changes followed. The entire week is held in very modest trades. The amplitude of movement all over the week does not exceed 45 points in both directions. Thus, the markets are now in disorder. On the one hand, the wave pattern continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend section, while on the other, it is difficult for the markets to continue buying the euro due to the lack of news background.
Based on the analysis, the instrument is still expected to rise. At this time, it is assumed that the correctional wave 2 or b, as well as the internal wave 2 as part of the assumed 3, are already done forming. Thus, it is suggested to continue buying the instrument with targets located around the level of 1.2300 and the level of 1.2340, for each MACD upward signal. There are no reasons to revise the current wave pattern yet.
The wave pattern of the upward section of the trend still has a fully completed five-wave form and is not going to become more complex yet. The section of the trend, which started to form immediately after it, took a corrective and also quite complete form. If the current wave pattern is correct, then the construction of a new upward section of the trend is continuing and its first two waves have already ended.