On the H4 chart, the wave pattern still does not require any clarifications and additions, although the past few days were clearly not the most unclear. During the last two days of the last week, the instrument's quotes gained about 70 basis points. It seems to be a little, but it was enough to make a successful attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level. However, the expected first wave of a new upward trend, which should take at least a 3-waveform, has already been greatly delayed. Inside it, 5 waves are not visible, so it can take almost any kind of length. Nevertheless, I am still waiting for its completion and the departure of quotes from the reached highs in the framework of the construction of the second wave or C. There are reasons to assume that this wave will still begin to form in the coming days. In general, the wave pattern does not even have an alternative option for now.
The news background for the EUR/USD pair was quite interesting last Friday. The demand for the European currency has increased, but it has not been without ignoring some reports and events. However, Friday is already done, and it's time for us to focus on the new week. For this week, the most important and interesting events are planned in the US. However, it is unknown what impact they will have on the main currency pair. The Fed meeting always attracts a lot of market attention, but everything will depend solely again on J. Powell's rhetoric. It can be recalled that his recent statements made it clear to the markets that there will be no curtailment of the quantitative stimulus program now. Inflation will be allowed to remain high, while monetary policy will remain soft. The economy continues to recover and still needs stimulation. This is the opinion of Jerome Powell, and it is unlikely that it changed in a couple of days. At the same time, the Fed Chairman highly appreciates the current pace of recovery. As such, his rhetoric this week may be mixed. On the one hand, he is likely to continue to focus on maintaining incentives, which is unlikely to please traders and especially investors who will have to look for new ways to counter inflation. On the other hand, Powell is likely to see a strong recovery in the economy again. Also this week, the US GDP report for the first quarter will be released, which just can confirm Powell's words about the high pace of recovery, as the markets are waiting for a reading of at least 6.1% qoq.
Based on the analysis, the formation of the upward trend is still expected. Despite the fact that the attempt to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci level was ultimately successful, I still look forward to the construction of a second wave. Therefore, it is not suggested to rush on opening new purchases. It is better to wait until wave 2 or b is completed.
The wave pattern of the upward trend section still has a fully completed five-wave form and is not going to get complex yet. But the section of the trend, which began to form immediately after it, takes on a corrective, but quite understandable form. This part of the trend is also almost done.