EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair reversed the European currency during the last day and resumed the growth process. The closing of the pair's rate above the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.2067) allowed the quotes to continue the growth process in the direction of the level of 1.2117. The pair's rebound from this level will work in favor of the US dollar, and some fall back in the direction of 1.2067. Consolidation above 1.2117 will allow us to expect further growth in the direction of 161.8% (1.2166). On Friday, the information background promised to be quite strong, as there were many different events and economic reports planned. However, as it turned out later, most of them did not affect the pair's movement. The biggest hopes were for the speeches of Christine Lagarde and Janet Yellen, which were scheduled to start at about the same time in the afternoon. However, as time went on, it became clear that neither the US Treasury Secretary nor the ECB chairman had anything interesting to say in their speeches. Lagarde spoke a day earlier at a press conference to summarize the results of the ECB meeting. Then many analysts noted the excessive softness of her rhetoric, which created pressure on the euro currency. It is unlikely that her rhetoric would have changed in one day. As for Janet Yellen, the tax issue is now being discussed in the United States, as Joe Biden intends to raise taxes for the rich and to raise them significantly. And Janet Yellen, as Treasury Secretary, is directly involved. Moreover, Janet Yellen announced her desire to create a single corporate tax around the world so that large corporations do not flee from countries with high taxes to countries with low rates. Thus, the topic of taxes is now the number one topic in the United States, but Yellen did not say anything about it on Friday.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes resumed the growth process after several days of ordeal around the level of 161.8% (1.2027). However, a new bearish divergence is already brewing in the MACD indicator, which may allow for a reversal in favor of the US dollar and closing under the trend line, which had to be slightly adjusted. Fixing under the trend line will change the current mood of traders to "bearish."
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair quotes have resumed the growth process and can consolidate above the trend line today or tomorrow. This closure will allow us to expect continued growth in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2496). Rebound – will let you count on the resumption of the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 261.8% (1.1822).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle," which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On April 23, in addition to the speeches of Christine Lagarde and Janet Yellen, the indices of business activity in the services and manufacturing sectors in the US and the EU were also released. All four indices were better than the previous values, and almost all of them were higher than traders' expectations.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
US - change in the volume of orders for long-term goods (12:30 UTC).
On April 26, the calendar of economic events in the European Union is empty. In the United States – a rather interesting report on orders for long-term goods will be released.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, which turned out to be very eloquent. At the moment, a bullish trend has formed on many charts, or it is about to form. As it turned out, the "Non-commercial" category of traders was also engaged in building up long contracts and closing short contracts during the reporting week. The first 6,283 were opened, the second - 8,534 were completed. Thus, the "bullish" mood of speculators increases again, which gives reason to expect the continuation of the growth of the euro currency. The gap between the total number of long and short contracts in the hands of major players is growing again.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the pair if it closes below the trend line on the 4-hour chart with targets of 1.1989 and 1.1922. I recommend buying the pair today when closing above the level of 1.2117 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.2166.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.