EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 16. COT reports. Traders in no hurry to sell the euro, ignoring strong US reports. Bears aim for 1.1946

To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:

Yesterday was a rather strange day. We received a good report on the growth of the US economy, however, the volatility of the EUR/USD pair remained at a record low, and so it stayed within the horizontal channel. The data on the volume of retail sales in the United States exceeded economists' forecasts almost twice, but this did not shake the market either. As a result: only the morning strategy worked, and no other signals were generated. Let's take a look at the 5 minute chart and break down the entry point. You can clearly see how, after several attempts to rise above the 1.1987 level ended in failure, a false breakout was formed, which resulted in creating a good entry point to short positions in anticipation of a downward correction, which was about 25 points, with 40 points of intraday volatility.

Considering how the market has been ignoring fundamental data lately, it is unlikely that today's inflation report in the eurozone will have a strong impact on the euro, especially since it is expected to rise according to preliminary estimates. The initial task is to protect the 1.1946 support, which I revised from yesterday's 1.1953 level. Forming a false breakout there will result in creating a signal to open long positions in continuation of the bullish trend. In this case, we can count on returning to resistance at 1.1981. Its breakthrough and having the pair settle above it, along with testing it from top to bottom, can create a new entry point into long positions with the prospect of returning to 1.2047, where I recommend taking profits. The next target will be the high at 1.2109. If bulls are not active in the 1.1946 support area, then I recommend holding back from long positions until the test of the larger 1.1916 area, from where you can buy EUR/USD immediately on a rebound, counting on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. The next support is seen around 1.1880.

To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:

The bears failed to pull the pair under the 1.1953 level yesterday, only moving it to the 1.1946 area. All we managed to do was to defend the large resistance at 1.1987, which has now transformed into the 1.1981 level. The succeeding direction for today will depend on these two areas. The bears' initial task for the first half of the day is to regain control of support at 1.1946. A disappointing report on inflation in the euro area will lead to consolidation below this range, being able to test it from the bottom up can create an entry point for short positions, which will increase the pressure on the pair and push it to the area of a low like 1.1916. In case the pair surpasses this range, you can further sell the euro with the expectation that it would return to the 1.1880 support, where I recommend taking profit. If the euro is still in demand in the morning, and traders are pleased with the data on the consumer price index, then I recommend holding back from short positions until a false breakout forms in the resistance area of 1.1981. You can sell EUR/USD on a rebound from a new large high of 1.2047, counting on a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day.

The indicators of long and short positions underwent a number of changes in the Commitment of Traders (COT) report for April 6, it revealed that the indicators of long and short positions significantly increased, which indicates that the bears are still in control of the market. Long positions continued to decline, which led to another drop in the positive delta. Last week we received a number of fundamental reports, but the International Monetary Fund's meeting grabbed more attention, at which a number of agreements were reached to extend the debt deferral program until the end of this year and an initiative was created to support the poor countries most affected by the coronavirus. Last week, there was also a lot of talk about the bureaucratic delay in the implementation of the EU Recovery Fund, which limits the euro's growth potential in the near future. For this reason, the market remains on the side of the sellers of risky assets in the medium term, which may lead to forming a succeeding downward trend. Investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the dollar more attractive. This week's inflation data could seriously affect the balance of power in the market in favor of dollar bulls. One can expect an improvement in the economic outlook for the eurozone only when restrictions are lifted and the service sector is restored. This can also return the medium-term trend of strengthening EUR/USD and push it to an upward trend.

The COT report indicated that long non-commercial positions declined from 194,764 to 192,230, while short non-commercial positions rose from 121,024 to 124,708. As a result, the total non-commercial net position continued to decline and reached 67,522 against 73,739 a week earlier. But the weekly closing price rose to 1.1816 against 1.1768 last week.

Indicator signals:

Moving averages

Trading is carried out above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates a possible decline in the euro in the short term.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands

Surpassing the upper border of the indicator in the area of 1.1981 will lead to a new wave of growth for the pair. Surpassing the lower border of the indicator around 1.1953 will increase pressure on the euro.

Description of indicators