EUR/USD
The dollar stopped weakening yesterday. US retail sales in March showed an increase of 9.8% against the forecast of 5.0-5.8%. In addition, the weekly report of the Ministry of Labor on claims for unemployment benefits showed a decline from 769,000 to 576,000 (the forecast was 703,000) and industrial production grew by 1.4% in March with an increase in capacity utilization from 73.8% to 74.4%. The desire (or forecast) of a number of investment companies to see an increase in risk appetite is still not materialized. The US stock index S&P 500 rose by 1.11%, but gold rose in price by 1.61%, the yield on 5-year government bonds fell from 0.86% to 0.81%. In the next week, the United States is placing debt obligations worth $227 billion, which will still increase the demand for the dollar.
On the daily chart, the price confirmed the reversal from the strong level (1.1990) at the point of its intersection with the MACD indicator line. The Marlin oscillator is turning down more clearly. At the very least, we are now waiting for a deep correction from the growth from March 31, possibly to the target level of 1.1810 (61.8% of this entire growing movement). At the most, we are waiting to recover the downward movement with targets below 1.1700.
The divergence has been confirmed on the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is already in the negative zone. If the price moves under the MACD line, below 1.1914, the price will confirm its intention to decline in the medium term.