EUR/USD: plan for the US session on April 15 (analysis of morning trades)

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:

In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.1987 and recommended actions based on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and analyze the entry point. It is seen that after several unsuccessful attempts to break above the range of 1.1987, a false breakout is formed, which leads to the formation of a good entry point into short positions in the expectation of a downward correction, which at the time of writing was about 25 points. All the focus is now on the second half of the day, as this is where the data on the volume of retail sales in the United States will be published, which may strengthen the position of the US dollar against the euro.

Given that the technical picture has not changed in any way, except for the fact that the market is now under the control of the euro sellers, the strategy and tactics for the second half of the day remained the same. The data on the consumer price index of the eurozone countries fully coincided with the forecasts of economists, which squeezed the pair in a narrow side channel, preventing it from continuing the upward trend. Given that the pressure on the euro is gradually returning: the initial task of buyers will be to protect the support of 1.1953, where only the formation of a false breakdown will lead to the formation of a signal to open long positions in the continuation of the bullish trend. In this case, we can count on a breakout and consolidation above the resistance of 1.1987, which we failed to do in the first half of the day. A test of this level from top to bottom forms another entry point into long positions with the prospect of a return to 1.2047, where I recommend fixing the profit. A further target will be a maximum of 1.2109. In the scenario of no bull activity in the support area of 1.1953 and strong data on retail sales in the US: I recommend postponing long positions until the test of the larger area of 1.1920, where you can buy EUR/USD immediately on the rebound in the expectation of an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day. The next support is seen in the area of 1.1880.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:

Sellers failed to reach the support of 1.1953 today but defended the resistance of 1.1987, which allows us to count on a larger downward correction in the second half of the day. The task of the bears for the American session of the day will be to return the support of 1.1953 under control. Very strong data on the volume of retail sales in the US, which should be much better than economists' forecasts, will lead to a consolidation below 1.1953, and a test of this level from the bottom up will form an entry point into short positions, which will increase pressure on the pair and push it into the area of the minimum of 1.1920. In the event of a breakout of this range, you can continue to sell the euro already in the expectation of a return to the support of 1.1880, where I recommend fixing the profit. If the demand for the euro returns today in the second half of the day, and the data disappoints traders, I recommend postponing short positions to a new large high of 1.2047 in the expectation of a downward correction of 20-25 points within the day.

Let me remind you that in the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 6, the indicators of long and short positions have undergone several changes – short positions have grown strongly, which indicates that the market remains under the control of euro sellers. Long positions continued to decline, which led to another drop in the positive delta. Last week was filled with several fundamental statistics, but more attention was drawn to the meeting of the International Monetary Fund, at which several agreements were reached on the extension of the debt deferral program until the end of this year and an initiative was created to support the poor countries most affected by the coronavirus. Last week, much was also said about the bureaucratic delay in the implementation of the EU recovery fund, which is still really limiting the upward potential of the euro in the near future. For this reason, in the medium term, the market remains on the side of sellers of risky assets, which may lead to further formation of a downward trend.

Investors expect the United States to be the first to start raising interest rates, which makes the dollar more attractive. This week's inflation data may seriously affect the balance of power in the market in favor of dollar buyers. The first signs of the formation of a medium-term bullish trend will be possible only after the lifting of restrictions and the recovery of the eurozone services sector, which will strengthen the hope for an improvement in the economic outlook and return the EUR/USD to the upward trend. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions decreased from the level of 194,764 to the level of 192,230, while short non-profit positions increased from the level of 121,024 to the level of 124,708. As a result, the total non-profit net position again continued its decline and amounted to 67,522 against 73,739 a week earlier. But the weekly closing price rose to the level of 1.1816 against 1.1768 last week.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted around 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the sideways nature of the market before the release of important fundamental statistics.

Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1987 will lead to a new wave of growth of the euro.

Description of indicators