On the first day of the new trading week, the main currency pair of the Forex market showed an upward trend, however, this growth did not affect the overall technical picture for EUR/USD. We will talk about this in more detail in the technical part of the review. However, for now, there is other information, including fundamental information. Monday turned out to be very poor on macroeconomic reports, except for retail sales in the eurozone, which came out better than economists' expectations. So, retail sales in February increased in the zone of circulation of the single European currency by 3%, although forecasts were reduced to an increase of only 1.5%. In annual terms, retail sales in the euro area also exceeded analysts' forecasts of minus 5.4% and amounted to minus 2.9%. To complete the fundamental part of the article, I will highlight the most important reports that can affect trading on EUR/USD today. At 10:00 London time, business sentiment indices from the ZEW institute for the eurozone and Germany will be published. Further, after the opening of the US session, data will begin to arrive from the US, where investors will pay special attention to the consumer price index and its base value, that is, without taking into account food and energy prices. This data will be released at 13:30 (London time). Also, at 17:00 (London time), speeches are scheduled by members of the Federal Open Market Committee, Esther George and Mary Daly. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker will also make speeches. In general, needless to say, the macroeconomic background today is expected to be very saturated. And no wonder, the week that started is gradually gaining momentum, and we will have many more interesting and important releases in the future.
Now, let us briefly talk about the vaccination situation in Europe against the COVID-19 pandemic. Gradually, Brussels officials, after the initial failure of the vaccination plan, come to their senses, and the pace of vaccination of the European population to develop group immunity is gaining momentum. Virologist experts believe that 70% vaccination will provide this very collective or group immunity. Presumably, this figure will already be reached in the summer. This is the minimum percentage needed to contain the increase in cases of infection, but according to European leaders, every effort will be made to ensure that more than 70 percent of European citizens are vaccinated. It's time to move on to the technical part of the review, and first, let's see what the picture is on the daily chart of the euro/dollar currency pair.
Daily
So, following the results of yesterday's trading, the main currency pair rose, ending Monday's trading at 1.1909. This is above the important and significant mark of 1.1900, but slightly below the level of 38.2 on the Fibonacci grid, stretched to a decline of 1.2242-1.1703. It is also necessary to note that EUR/USD is trading in a fairly narrow range, which can be designated as 1.1860-1.1927. At the same time, the strong support zone is 1.1866-1.1860, and the resistance is in the area of 1.1919-1.1927. Based on the technical picture that has developed on the daily chart, we can assume with a high degree of probability that the exit from the designated range will indicate the further direction of the price. A true breakout of the strong technical level of 1.1860 will determine the bearish direction of the instrument, and a breakout of the sellers' resistance at 1.1927 will herald further bullish prospects for the euro/dollar.
H1
Given the fact that the pair is trading in a relatively narrow range, at this stage of time, there are both sales and purchases of EUR/USD. Since starting from 1.1900, the resistance to possible growth is still quite strong, the area for sales will be designated as 1.1900-1.1925. At the same time, before opening short positions, it would be good to see the reversal bearish patterns of candle analysis on this or four-hour timeframes in the selected zone. I recommend resorting to the same tactic regarding purchases if bullish candlestick signals appear in the support area of 1.1870-1.1860. For those who do not want to take risks, I recommend staying out of the market for now. Today is expected to be a busy day, and we may see an exit from the range of 1.1927-1.1860, after which the technical picture will become much clearer.