I believe that it is no secret that universal vaccination of the population is considered by virologists to be the cornerstone that can prevent the further spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this regard, the so-called "vaccine battle" continues between the European Union and the United Kingdom. We are talking about the most controversial drug AstraZeneca, which caused disputes between the EU and the UK. Not only does this vaccine have a very extensive number of side effects, but AstraZeneca has actually disrupted the supply of its drug to the European Union. Let me remind you that the original agreement implied that the EU would receive 120 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine this quarter, but Brussels has so far received only a quarter of the total figure.
European officials and leaders of some EU countries, particularly Italy, strongly discourage the export of the vaccine outside the European Union. London is very unhappy with such actions of its recent allies, but hopes for a compromise on this difficult issue. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who himself was instilled by AstraZeneca, speaks out for compliance with investment contracts and reasonable investment of funds. In general, while the court is considering the case, disputes regarding the export of AstraZeneca outside the EU, in particular to the UK, continue. Brussels officials can be understood somewhere, although it is mostly their fault that the vaccination campaign was actually disrupted in the European Union. While the UK, on the other hand, poses success in this matter, which causes some envy among European colleagues.
If we briefly outline the prospects for monetary policy of the Bank of England and the Fed, the BoE can, with the greatest degree of probability, move to a more "dovish" policy, which is facilitated by the UK's exit from the EU and the not quite clear future economic prospects, which will push the BoE to softer decisions. If this happens, this factor will certainly affect the pound sterling, which will continue to lose its position in a pair with the US dollar.
Daily
Yesterday's assumptions about the downward scenario for the GBP/USD pair were fully justified. The pair ended trading on March 24 within the Ichimoku cloud indicator, at 1.3685. This is below the significant mark of 1.3700, which has been highlighted in previous reviews for GBP/USD. However, as long as only one daily candle is closed under this level, I would not say that it is truly broken. Moreover, a little lower, at the level of 1.3656, there is a black 89 exponential moving average, which can provide the pair with strong support and turn the course up. At the very least, a corrective pullback from the 89 EMA is very, very likely.
On the other hand, the US dollar is gaining strength across the entire range of currencies, and with the breakdown of the support levels of 1.3806 and 1.3777, the downward trend for the pound has only strengthened. Nevertheless, the 1.3700 mark and the 89 EMA may trigger an upward rebound. Today, there have already been attempts by the pair to return above 1.3700, however, at the time of writing this article, they were not crowned with success. Nevertheless, the main trading idea for the pound/dollar pair is selling after corrective rebounds to the price zone of 1.3700-1.3725. I recommend using higher and more favorable prices for opening sales if the pair rises to the area of 1.3750-1.3770.