At the auction on March 15-19, the Forex currency market showed a radically different picture than the one that was a week earlier. This time, the US dollar strengthened against all of its major competitors, except for the Japanese yen. Well, such changes in the price movement in the market have already been observed before. Thus, there is nothing particularly surprising. As for the single European currency, at the auction of the last five days, it showed the largest decline against the dollar, which was 0.35%. In more detail, we will analyze the technical picture on the weekly and daily timeframes a little later. For now, let's briefly talk about the situation with the COVID-19 pandemic and what is planned in the economic calendar today.
In Europe, the main topic is still vaccination of the population, which is disrupted due to interruptions in the supply of vaccines. And again, the already scandalous AstraZeneca vaccine is already on the radar. The drug of this company has a lot of side effects and AstraZeneca fulfilled only one-third of the initial agreements of the planned delivery of the vaccine to the European Union in the first quarter of this year. At the same time, the vaccine of this company, produced in the EU, successfully and in fairly large quantities goes outside the European Union. As usual, in such difficult and critical situations, businessmen do not give up the large profits that the sale of the drug gives to other regions. Naturally, such a course of events cannot please EU officials. For example, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, proposed to impose a ban on the shipment of the AstraZeneca vaccine to other regions until all agreements on the volume of vaccine supplies to the EU are fulfilled.
In addition to AstraZeneca, which has damaged its reputation, other vaccines are used in the EU (Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech), however, there are still not enough drugs, so the vaccination of EU citizens is very slow. As for the Russian "Sputnik V" vaccine, it has not yet been approved by the European Medicines Agency, although many countries are looking forward to it. For example, Germany and Italy are ready to directly purchase "Sputnik V" from Russia, without waiting for the approval of Brussels officials. Today can not be called a busy day, however, one event needs to be paid attention to - at 14:00 London time, the next speech of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will take place. It is unlikely that we will hear something radically new from the mouth of the head of the Federal Reserve, however, his speech can lead to sharp price movements in the market.
Weekly
Despite the decline shown last week, there were no significant changes in the technical picture of EUR/USD. The key support area is still located near 1.1835. Another significant and technically strong level of 1.1875 prevented a further decline in the quote. Regarding the resistance, everything also remained unchanged. The blue line of the Ichimoku Kijun indicator and the level of 1.1990 is the obstacles that actively hinder the further progress of the course in the north direction. In general, if denoted by round numbers, the range in which the euro/dollar is traded can be denoted as 1.2000-1.1800. I will assume that only the true exit of the price from this range will indicate its further direction.
Daily
The daily chart shows an equally confusing picture. After the successive growth and decline that were demonstrated by EUR/USD at the auction on March 17 and 18, on the last day of weekly trading, the market had no idea about the further movement of the quote, which is indicated by the doji candle formed on March 19 with equidistant shadows. The bears can count on the fact that they were able to close Friday's trading under the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator. The merit of the euro bulls is that they kept the price above the support of 1.188, and closed the day and week above the important level of 1.1900.
Based on the ambiguous prospects for further price movement, I recommend considering both positioning options, where the main one so far is the sale of the euro/dollar. You can take a closer look at the opening of short positions after the pair tries to rise above 1.1935, 1.1960, and 1.1980. Even higher, after the appearance of the corresponding candle signals on the daily or smaller timeframes, we open sales from the price zone of 1.2000-1..2015. It is better to consider purchases at lower prices, and with the mandatory removal of the stop under the level of 1.1835, and even better under 1.1800. The nearest price area for opening long positions is 1.1885-1.1875, and below 1.1860-1.1840. Let's see how the first trading day ends in the market. And in tomorrow's review, we will analyze smaller time intervals and make adjustments.