EUR/USD – 1H.
During the past day, the EUR/USD pair continued the process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1873) and worked it twice: on Friday and tonight. Both times, there was a rebound from this level, which allows traders to count on a reversal in favor of the European currency and the beginning of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1952). Closing the pair's rate below the level of 127.2% will increase the probability of a further fall in the direction of the next Fibo level of 161.8% (1.1772). On Friday, the information background for the pair was quite weak. Traders were still under the impression of the meetings of the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, however, their mood after these events did not change dramatically. Over the past two weeks, the pair's quotes have generally been trading in a fairly narrow sideways corridor. The US dollar was not helped by information about a new increase in the yield of US treasuries, which are believed to cause the strengthening of the US currency. But if they do, it is not continuous and not strong. Meanwhile, the vaccination crisis continues in the European Union. As I said earlier, there are big problems with supplies in the European Union and, accordingly, there is a shortage of vaccines and low vaccination rates, for which the EU leadership is strongly criticized. At the same time, the member states of the European Union. In such a situation, the European Commission is forced to refuse to help developing countries until it completely solves the problems with the supply of the vaccine against the "coronavirus" for itself. This was stated by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. In her opinion, the countries of the European Union have to solve many problems to receive a vaccine, which is in short supply. As for assistance to developing countries, the European Union has already invested about 2.2 billion euros in this initiative. "I cannot explain to European citizens why we export the vaccine to countries that produce the vaccine themselves and do not send us anything in return," von der Leyen said.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and continue a new process of falling in the direction of the level of 1.1836, near which they stopped last time. However, in general, the entire movement of the pair already resembles the movement in the side corridor between the levels of 1.1836 and 1.1988. At least it is in this price range that the pair has been since March 5, that is, for more than two weeks.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation under the upward trend corridor, so the mood on the traffic was "bearish". The descending trend line confirms this. Fixing the pair's rate under the Fibo level of 261.8% will increase the chances of a further fall in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.1566).
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has made a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On March 19, the calendars of economic events in the European Union and the United States were empty, so the information background was extremely weak or absent.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On March 22, the calendars of economic events in the United States and the European Union are again empty. Thus, the influence of the information background today will also be absent.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
Last Friday, another COT report was released, and this time it turned out to be overly aggressive. For the third week in a row, the "Non-commercial" category of traders gets rid of long contracts on the euro currency. This time, their number has decreased by almost 12 thousand. However, this time, the "Commercial" category of traders also got rid of 53 thousand long contracts and 75 thousand short contracts. Thus, the total number of long contracts decreased by 73.5 thousand, and short contracts – by 84 thousand. It is not clear what caused such a huge change in the mood of speculators and commercial traders, but the data is exactly that. The chances of ending the upward trend for the euro currency are growing.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It was recommended to sell the pair at the closing of quotes under the level of 100.0% (1.1952) with a target of 1.1873 on the hourly chart. This level is worked out. Now it is recommended to sell with the targets of 1.1836 and 1.1772 if a close is made under 1.1873. I recommend buying the pair when rebounding from the levels of 1.1873 or 1.1836 with a target of 1.1952.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy foreign currency, not for speculative profit, but to support current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.