Commodity market analysts say that recovering from the frightening crisis, global oil prices will continue to grow steadily in the short term. As the main evidence, they cite the information that the difference in the value of contracts for the supply of black gold in the near future and futures for later dates has reached a record since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic.
So, the price of Brent crude oil is close to $60 for the first time since the demand for fuel has significantly sagged due to the coronavirus pandemic. This was followed by the worst crisis in the history of the industry, against the background of which the demand for black gold in China fell by 20%, and prices fell to negative values. In parallel, more than 1 billion "extra" barrels of oil have accumulated in the world's storage facilities.
Today, there is definitely an impulse for growth in the market, and its recovery is happening faster than analysts and investors expected. Experts believe that the $60 price will soon become a very realistic target not only for Brent but also for WTI.
The main factors that indicate the prospect of confident positive dynamics are, first, contract prices for oil delivery in the near term are significantly higher compared to futures for delivery at later dates. This phenomenon is called backwardation. Last Friday, contracts for the supply of WTI crude oil in March 2021 cost $5.16 more than for its supply in March 2022. This figure was the highest since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, analysts emphasize. Of course, no one doubts that this is a bullish indicator.
However, some investors see backwardation as a sign that the price rally will end soon. The current state of the markets motivates traders to get rid of black gold in the hope of making more money by selling it as soon as possible. Obviously, this situation leads to a decrease in supply and an increase in cost.
In forecasts of the prospects for the growth of oil prices, experts assign an important role to the countries of Asia. Many of the surveyed analysts say that further growth is possible if demand, which has already recovered in China and India, soon recovers in developed countries. Chinese authorities announced a record reduction in oil reserves in December last year due to the increase in refining volumes.
Another factor in the growth of the oil market was the limitation of production by OPEC + countries. According to experts, this gesture was proof that the parties to the deal are serious about accelerating the reduction of excess reserves of black gold. Analysts add that today the market is still balancing between COVID-19-induced declines in demand and OPEC + 's ability to manage declines in supply.