Well, today we are waiting for the so-called "triple close" when the trading ends in January, the current week closes, and the last day of the current five-day period itself. Before moving on to the charts for the main currency pair, let's briefly talk about yesterday's macroeconomic reports and what data is planned in the economic calendar for today.
So, as already noted in yesterday's article on EUR/USD, the main fundamental event was the preliminary data on US GDP for the fourth quarter of last year. Forecasts assumed the growth of the world's leading economy by 4%, which eventually confirmed the actual figures. Initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States decreased and amounted to 847,000. But preliminary data on the price deflator and sales of new buildings in the United States were worse than forecast values. Given the mixed US data, I do not think that they had a significant impact on yesterday's price dynamics of the main currency pair. Today's economic calendar is even more saturated with important data from Europe and the United States. I recommend paying attention to the data on the labor market and GDP in Germany, the monetary aggregate of the Ministry of Health of the Eurozone, and the personal income and expenses of Americans from the American statistics, as well as the Chicago purchasing managers' index. More complete information about all today's reports, their release time, and forecasts can be found in the economic calendar itself.
Daily
Despite unprecedented fiscal stimulus in the US to counter the COVID-19 pandemic and the presidential election victory of Joe Biden, investors' risk appetite was short-lived. This development of the situation was also assumed in some previous articles on the main currency pair of the Forex market. Having risen to the level of 1.2350, the EUR/USD pair was not able to continue further strengthening, although many analysts argued that the euro/dollar would rise to 1.2500. It is always convenient and easy to call round numbers, it looks solid and knowledgeable. With a more thorough technical analysis, even in the case of growth above 1.2350, the author of this article would pay attention to a fairly strong technical zone of 1.2420-1.2460, and to get to it, you will need to break through another strong mark of 1.2380. This does not look as impressive as the designation of the target at 1.2500, however, it is in this area that the pair could (and still can) meet quite strong resistance and not reach 1.2500. In the meantime, market participants have descended to the sinful earth, and the craving for risk is limited by the emergence of new strains of COVID-19, which force the authorities of countries with developed economies to introduce new lockdowns that do not contribute to the development of these very economies. In this case, we are talking about the economy of the eurozone and the United States. However, back to the daily euro/dollar chart. As we can see, the significance and strength of the 50 simple moving average have been noted (and repeatedly) not in vain. The true breakdown of 50 MA can not yet be considered to have taken place since, at yesterday's trading, the pair slightly grew and closed trading at 50 MA and the red line of the Tenkan Ichimoku indicator. Another very significant support factor is the upper limit of the Ichimoku indicator cloud, which the downside players failed to break through during yesterday's trading. Today, at the end of the review, attempts to continue the pressure are confirmed and the pair is trading with minor losses. However, given today's eventful economic calendar, the situation may change very dramatically. For those who want to open new positions on the last trading day of the month and week, I recommend looking for sales of EUR/USD after short-term rises in the price zone of 1.2110-1.2140. We will analyze the technical picture for the euro/dollar in more detail on Monday, taking into account the closing of monthly and weekly trading.