GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair quotes continued to fall in the direction of the corrective level of 76.4% (1.3522) on January 7. The descending trend line continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bearish". Closing the pair's exchange rate below the 76.4% Fibo level will increase the probability of a further decline in the direction of the next corrective levels of 76.4% (1.3458) and 61.8% (1.3406). The entire world community is now discussing the attack on the Capitol. All world leaders condemned the demonstrators' behavior. One way or another, the issue of impeaching Donald Trump is now on the agenda in Congress, even though there are less than two weeks left before the end of his presidential term. Today, we propose to pay special attention to the report on Nonfarm in the United States. In recent weeks and even months, little attention has been paid to the economy, as there have been a large number of other important and interesting events. But you can't skip the Nonfarm report. It is expected that the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector will be from 69 to 100 thousand. If these figures are confirmed, the US dollar may continue its growth on Friday. Also, today, reports on wages in the United States and the unemployment rate will be released. Recent reports on applications for unemployment benefits showed a positive trend, so there is reason to assume that the unemployment rate will not rise. All of this can help the dollar.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the corrective level of 127.2% (1.3701) with a reversal in favor of the US currency and continues a very weak process of falling in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3481). A rebound of the pair's rate from this level will work in favor of the British and resume the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2%. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed a consolidation above the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). Thus, the growth process can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 127.2% (1.4084).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed above the second downward trend line. Thus, the chances of long-term growth of the pound are significantly increased.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no hugely important economic reports in the UK and the US on Thursday. Traders were not very active that day. Business activity indices in the UK construction sector and the US ISM services sector did not impress traders.
The economic calendar for the US and the UK:
US - unemployment rate (13:30 GMT).
US - change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector (13:30 GMT).
US - change in the average hourly wage (13:30 GMT).
On January 8, all the most interesting news will be released in the United States. Traders will be most interested in the Nonfarm Payrolls report.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report from December 29 showed that speculators were getting rid of both long contracts and short-contracts. In small quantities. In total, the "Non-commercial" category of traders closed 1,640 long contracts and 296 short contracts. Thus, their mood became a little more bearish. Also, the total number of contracts focused on the hands of speculators does not speak unequivocally in favor of further growth of the British dollar. The number of long contracts remains large, but literally by several thousand. Since October, this distribution has changed dramatically. As of October 1, the number of long contracts was 35 thousand, and short – 52. Thus, over the past three months, major traders have significantly increased their "bullish" mood.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
It is recommended to buy the British dollar today when the pair rebounds from the level of 76.4% (1.3522) with the aim of the trend line on the hourly chart. Or in the case of closing quotes above the trend line with a target of 1.3698. I recommend selling the pound sterling at a rebound from the trend line on the hourly chart with the target level of 76.4% (1.3522).
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.