4-hour timeframe
Technical details:
Higher linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Lower linear regression channel: direction - upward.
Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.
CCI: 44.2049
The EUR/USD currency pair continues to trade, ignoring any fundamental and technical factors. On December 31, the euro quotes were still fixed below the moving average line, so we concluded that now at least a downward correction will begin. However, on the night of January 4, when the markets opened after the New Year holidays, the euro began to grow almost immediately and almost recoilless. That is, trading opened on Monday, and the euro resumed its upward movement as if nothing had happened. Without any fundamental grounds or reasons. And what could be the reasons on Monday, when everyone just "woke up" after the holidays? However, 2020 has taught us not to pay attention to such trifles, or at least not to be too surprised. How many times during 2020 have we written about the fact that the euro is growing for no apparent reason? And all this time, the growth continues, and the reasons are still few. Thus, at the moment, the upward trend is resumed, the pair's quotes are again trading near 2.5-year highs. And although the euro is heavily overbought, and there are still no fundamental reasons for the pair's growth, the upward movement can continue for as long as you want. We will not even remember the growth of the pound sterling in 2007 or oil in 2008. It is enough to look at bitcoin now and try to answer the question, and what was the reason for its growth to almost $ 35,000?
On November 3, the States held not only presidential elections, but also elections to the US Congress. Of course, the main attention of all was focused on the presidential election, as well as personally on the figure of Donald Trump. However, it is also worth paying attention to the new composition of Congress and understand what changes have taken place in general. It is immediately worth noting that the Democrats held the majority of seats. A total of 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 222 seats belong to Democrats and Republicans - 211. The gap, as we can see, is small, so the Democrats can not feel as confident as before when they had 232 seats at their disposal, and the Republicans - only 197. Now, six votes of defectors may be enough for the Republicans to control the lower house. It is also important to note that the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, was elected to her post for the fourth time in a row. Pelosi is now 80 years old, however, she will continue to control the lower house. However, many experts note that this will be her most difficult term because the Democrats lost 11 seats at once in the last election. And the most interesting fight unfolds in the Senate. Recall that in the past, the Republicans controlled the Senate, having just a couple of votes more than the Democrats. It is this minimal gap that Donald Trump should be grateful for; otherwise, he could have been impeached back in 2019, when it was the Senate that blocked the initiation of the "Democratic Congress". At the moment, 98 out of 100 seats in the Senate are allocated. 50 seats for Republicans, 48 for Democrats. But two more seats remain in question, as none of the candidates won the 50% of the vote needed to win in Georgia. At this time, the second round of voting is taking place in this state, and theoretically, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock, who are representatives of the Democratic Party, can win. If that happens, then the Senate will be controlled also by Democrats. Even though there will be an equality of votes – 50/50, in this case, the last word will remain, according to American law, for the Vice President of the United States, that is, for Kamala Harris, who is also a Democrat.
And, of course, do not forget that on January 6, the new Congress must approve the results of the presidential election. Most likely, there will be no problems with this, since Congress is controlled by the Democrats, whose candidate won. The most interesting thing is that although no one believes that Donald Trump or the Republicans will be able to turn the results of the vote, still the president and his supporters continue to fight. Trump has already said that on January 6, he will gather a large rally to protest the "rigged elections", and also present evidence of the Democrats' guilt. It will be interesting to look at this "evidence" but the most important fight is now developing in the state of Georgia, where the fate of the last two seats in the Senate is being decided.
As for the euro/dollar pair, it is not interested in all these events. We cannot ignore them, as they will affect US policy, and therefore the economy and international relations. However, at this time, we can only say one thing - the euro is growing and continues to grow no matter what. Thus, there is no point in trying to find out why the euro is growing now. You should continue to trade on the trend, that is, to increase.
The volatility of the euro/dollar currency pair as of January 5 is 75 points and is characterized as "average". Thus, we expect the pair to move today between the levels of 1.2182 and 1.2332. A reversal of the Heiken Ashi indicator to the top can signal a new round of upward movement.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.2207
S2 – 1.2146
S3 – 1.2085
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.2268
R2 – 1.2329
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair has started a round of corrective movement. Thus, today it is recommended to hold open short positions with targets of 1.2207 and 1.2182 if the pair breaks the moving average line. It is recommended to open new buy orders if the pair bounces off the moving average with a target of 1.2329.