EUR/USD – 1H.
On December 28, the EUR/USD pair performed a rebound from the upward trend line, a reversal in favor of the European currency, and a rise to the downward trend line. Thus, the rebound of quotes from this trend line will now work in favor of the US dollar and some fall. Fixing the pair's rate above this line will increase the pair's chances of further growth in the direction of the corrective level of 323.6% (1.2308). Meanwhile, this night, US President Donald Trump still signed the country's budget for 2021, which provides for a package of assistance to the economy for $ 900 billion. Let me remind you that last week, Trump refused to sign the budget, as he insisted on increasing payments to Americans from the $ 600 pledged in it to $ 2-4 thousand. However, as we can see, the US President has changed his mind. Probably to avoid a "shutdown". A "shutdown" is the suspension of the government and all public services due to a lack of funding. Let's say the budget for 2021 has not been agreed on and signed by the President, and this year has come. There is money, but no one has the right to spend it since the budget has not been adopted. This is called a "shutdown". It was under Trump a couple of years ago that there was the longest "shutdown" in the history of the United States, which lasted a month and a half. This time, the US President did not want to spend his last days in office fighting with Democrats and Congress and signed the bill. The US dollar responded by falling on this news
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes performed a minimal drop, however, the upward trend line continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bullish". Thus, the growth process can be resumed at any moment in the direction of the corrective level of 200.0% (1.2353). Fixing quotes under the trend line will work in favor of the US currency and the beginning of the fall. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair continue the process of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 423.6% (1.2495). Until the moment when the pair performs consolidation under the level of 323.6%, there are high chances of growth.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On December 24 and 25, there was not a single important news or report in the United States and the European Union. There was no information background. Only on Monday night it became known that Donald Trump signed the budget for 2021 and a package of assistance to the economy.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On December 28, there will again be no reports and news in America and the European Union. The information background will be absent today, according to the news calendar.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
For four weeks in a row, the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more "bullish". This was indicated by COT reports and it coincided with what was happening on the euro/dollar pair. However, in the reporting week, speculators opened as many as 11 thousand new short-contracts, and also closed 5200 long-contracts. Thus, they significantly weakened their bullish mood. And despite this, the euro continues to show growth. However, a sharp change in the mood of the "Non-commercial" category of traders does not mean that the euro currency should immediately fall. The latest COT report shows that speculators are once again preparing for a fall in the euro currency, or at least for the end of its growth.
EUR/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
On Monday, I recommend selling the euro currency in case the price is fixed under the ascending trend line on the hourly chart with the target level of 200.0% (1.2094). New purchases of the pair can be opened with a target of 1.2308 when the quotes are fixed above the descending trend line on the hourly chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.