GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair after rebounding from the lower border of the ascending corridor resumed the growth process and consolidated above the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3375). Thus, the growth rate of the pair can now be continued in the direction of the next corrective level of 200.0% (1.3499), and the upward trend corridor characterizes the current mood of traders as "bullish". With the British, we have the same paradox as with the euro. Even though you can always find a factor that pushes the pair up if you want, now this factor looks far-fetched. The British pound as a whole continues to grow, although there is no particular reason for this. And not for a long time. On the contrary, more and more economists, analysts, and experts believe that without a trade agreement, the British economy will face a crisis in 2021. Moreover, there is a strong crisis. What about the trade agreement? It is still missing. London and Brussels have already violated all the terms of the negotiations, which they previously announced. Thus, I cannot draw any conclusions about the approximate time frame for the completion of negotiations. And even more so about the results. Ursula von der Leyen, Boris Johnson, Andrew Bailey, Michel Barnier, and David Frost regularly speak, and each time they say contradictory things that either increase the likelihood of a trade deal or talk about a huge number of disagreements that will have to be resolved throughout 2021. It would be logical if there was no information and the pound did not grow. But there is no information, and the pound is growing.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair generally continues to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 0.0% (1.3481). The upward trend corridor shows the current mood of traders - "bullish". Fixing the pair's exchange rate under this corridor will work in favor of the US currency and the beginning of a fall in quotes towards the levels of 1.3191 and 1.3010.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes continue to grow in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3513). However, when trading a pair, I recommend paying more attention to the lower charts. They are now more informative. Two corridors are particularly important.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair completed a new close above the lower downward trend line, although a false breakout of this line followed earlier. In recent weeks, the pair has made new attempts to gain a foothold over both trend lines.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no reports or major events in the UK on Wednesday. News from America did not have much impact on the US currency.
News calendar for the United States and the United Kingdom:
On November 26, in America and the United Kingdom, the news calendars are empty. Today, there will be no information background, however, there may be news on the negotiation process between London and Brussels.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The last two COT reports showed a fairly sharp increase in the number of open short contracts for the "Non-commercial" category of traders. This suggests that speculators continue to believe in the fall of the British dollar in the very near future. Over the past three weeks, speculators have been building up short contracts and closing long ones. In general, major players are more afraid of opening new contracts, so the total number of them is falling. This is seen in the table above. Thus, conclusion number one: major players are afraid of the uncertainty associated with the trade deal and the British economy, so they do not want to trade the pound more actively. Conclusion number two: speculators believe more in the fall of the pound than in its growth.
GBP/USD forecast and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the GBP/USD pair with targets of 1.3264 and 1.3191 if a close is made under the ascending corridor on the 4-hour chart or under the ascending corridor on the hourly chart. I recommend to be careful with purchases of the pair now, as the COT report shows the faith of major players in the fall of the pound, and there is still no trade deal between London and Brussels.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - large market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.