Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair began a new round of corrective movement. Take note that we only consider the current downward trend because the price reached the area of the upper line of the horizontal channel at 1.1700-1.1900. Therefore, we expect a downward reversal and the euro's quotes to fall to the lower border of the channel. But in general, the pair remains in a long-term flat, and we are looking for trends only within the horizontal channel. Thus, in the current conditions, we still need to wait for a new sell signal from MACD, which will allow us to open new short positions. At the same time, the pair went into a weaker flat last week, between the levels of 1.1816 and 1.1890. The quotes have been in this range for more than a week. Therefore, the technical picture of the euro/dollar pair is becoming more and more unattractive for trading. Nevertheless, novice traders can count on the pair to fall by 50-60 points. If, by some miracle, the price settles above the 1.1903 level, then this will provide a lot of help in forming a new upward trend.
The European Union will publish business activity indices in the services and manufacturing sectors on Monday, November 23. The service sector is expected to be hit hard by the second wave of coronavirus, as well as the lockdown. Business activity is expected to drop to 42.5. This is a deterioration that may negatively affect GDP in the future - the most important indicator of the state of any economy. Therefore, the euro might be under pressure in the first half of the day. And will stay under it in the afternoon, because US PMIs are not forecast to decline. A second lockdown was not introduced in the United States, limiting itself only to targeted strengthening of quarantines in various states. Therefore, business activity remains normal. The epidemiological and political situation in the United States remains abnormal. Recall that Donald Trump continues to bombard the courts of all states in which he lost elections, and America remains in first place in the world in terms of the number of coronavirus diseases and deaths from it. However, market participants are no longer interested in these topics. They were hardly interested in it for the last week. Thus, most likely, the pair's volatility will remain rather weak today, and the price will remain within the double horizontal channel.
Possible scenarios for November 23:
1) Long positions are currently irrelevant. It will no longer be possible to go back to buying the euro before the end of the current downward trend. Under the current conditions, the only option is to overcome the 1.1903 level, which means the pair will leave the 1.1700-1.1900 horizontal channel. In this case, you are advised to open long positions with targets at 1.1923 and 1.1950.
2) Trading for a fall at this time is relevant, since the trend has changed to a downward one. The next round of the upward correction may end in the coming hours, so novice traders can track the MACD sell signal and start trading down with targets at 1.1841 and 1.1825. Given the minimal volatility, we do not expect strong movements on Monday.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (14,22,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.