EUR/USD – 1H.
On November 9, the EUR/USD pair performed a sharp reversal in favor of the US currency and fell to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.1815). The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to count on a reversal in favor of the EU currency and the resumption of growth in the direction of the corrective level of 100.0% (1.1881). Closing the pair's rate at 76.4% will increase the chances of a further fall towards the next Fibo level of 61.8% (1.1774). In recent days, the Internet has been flooded with information that Donald Trump is not going to admit defeat in the election and will sue almost all the states in which he lost. However, the latest information says that many courts have already rejected Trump's claims, and the campaign team and Trump's entourage advise the President to admit defeat in the election. But Trump wouldn't be Trump if he didn't start making discouraging decisions. First, the President dismissed the head of the Pentagon, Mark Esper. The conflict with Esper began during the mass riots in the United States on racial grounds. Then Trump wanted to suppress riots and rallies with the help of the US army, but the Pentagon refused to take such a step. Second, Trump has already announced his intention to run for President of the United States in 2024. Can this desire be regarded as an admission of defeat in the 2020 elections? Many journalists think so. One way or another, so far Trump is only threatening, but not making any really serious steps towards reviewing the results of the vote. Perhaps because he has no evidence of fraud?
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair's quotes rose to the upper border of the sideways trend corridor and rebounded from it. Thus, a reversal was made in favor of the US dollar and a fall began in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729) and the lower border of the side corridor. Closing the pair's rate above the side corridor will allow bull traders to expect further growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2027).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair consolidated above the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825). However, this level remains weak, and now we need to pay more attention to the lower charts, which respond more quickly to changes in the market.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation above the "narrowing triangle", which preserves the prospects for further growth of the pair, but in the long term. In the short term, a drop is preferable.
Overview of fundamentals:
On November 9, the European Union and America did not have a single economic report. Christine Lagarde, the ECB President, spoke, but she did not tell traders anything interesting. Thus, the information background was practically absent on this day.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
EU - business sentiment index from the ZEW Institute (10:00 GMT).
On November 10, there is even less news on the calendar of the European Union and America. Just one index of business sentiment, which is unlikely to attract the attention of traders.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was quite informative. The most important category of "Non-commercial" traders got rid of another 9 thousand long contracts during the reporting week (-12 thousand a week earlier), so speculators continue to get rid of purchases of the euro currency. At the same time, they are also increasing short-contracts, the total number of which has increased by 7.8 thousand. Thus, the strengthening of the "bearish" mood is evident. Based on this, I could conclude that the European currency will fall further, but last week's trading may change the mood of major traders dramatically. The euro has grown by 250 points over the past week, but this growth is not taken into account in the COT report. Only the next report will show how big traders traded after November 2.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro currency with targets of 1.1774 and 1.1742, if the pair closes at the level of 76.4% (1.1815) on the hourly chart. Purchases of the pair will now be possible with targets of 1.1956 and 1.2027 if the quotes perform a consolidation above the side corridor on the 4-hour chart.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.