Hourly chart of the GBP/USD pair
Trading is about to end at this time and it is quite difficult for the GBP/USD pair. The MACD indicator generated two sell signals here, each of which was weak and unconfirmed. The downward trend line only appeared in the evening, and was not available during the day. Thus, the downward trend for the pound/dollar pair has been extended and, one might even say, has intensified, since now traders have a trend line at their disposal. We advised not to trade up in the morning article, and also recommended waiting for the price to settle below 1.2774, which is the previous local low. At the moment, we can conclude that this level has been overcome, which means that the path for a long term decline is open for traders. New targets for trading will appear tomorrow, but for now the closest one is the support level of 1.2659.
The fundamental background is still the main reason why the pound's quotes are falling in September. Moreover, speeches from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey do not affect the mood at the moment. And neither did the central bank meetings last week. Traders are only fixated on events related to Brexit and the future relationship between the UK and the European Union. The pound started to fall when it was announced that two regular rounds of negotiations with Brussels regarding a free trade agreement have both ended in failure. And the pound also continued to move down when Prime Minister Boris Johnson's resonant bill was announced, this bill allows the UK government to violate its agreement with the EU on the Northern Ireland border. These two factors pull down the pair. Bailey delivered a speech today, but he only said one thing. Negative rates will not be introduced in the near future, although the Bank of England allows their use in the future. This is positive news for the pound, as we remind novice traders that any rate cut or expansion of the quantitative stimulus program is a bearish factor for the currency, the central bank of which is doing this. Therefore, one might say that Bailey even managed to please some buyers of the pound. But they could not take advantage of the given chances. Indexes of business activity in the service and manufacturing sectors will be published tomorrow in the UK and the United States, which are currently not important. You shouldn't skip them, however, they are unlikely to be followed by a serious market reaction.
Possible scenarios for September 23:
1) We still do not recommend buying the pound/dollar pair, since a strong downward trend has currently appeared. We believe that quotes will continue to decline in the near future, therefore, to be able to open long positions, you should wait until the trend changes to an upward one. That is when the price settles above the new descending trend line. This is unlikely to happen in the next few hours, so we recommend waiting at least in the morning.
2) Sell positions, from our point of view, are much more convenient now. They can be kept open until the MACD indicator reverses to the upside and then you can aim for the support level of 1.2659, if novice traders still entered the market using one of today's MACD signals. In general, as long as the downward trend line remains relevant, you are still advised to trade for a fall. It is recommended to study the possibilities of opening new sell orders tomorrow morning.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.