Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders) and weekly outlook for EUR/USD
Euro's open interest fell again and it was quite significant this time (658174 against 690782; -32608). As a result of the fact that the predominant action in the reporting period was to get rid of contracts, the analyzed groups of all major players reduced their net positions (Non-Commercial p.p. 178576 (-18238); Commercial p.p. 235159 (-13890); Dealer Intermediary ch.p 418776 (-20922)). However, it should be noted that, despite the reduction, the redistribution of funds among the groups allowed the overall total position, while retaining the advantage for the bears to receive some strengthening (p.p. 56583 (+4348)).
The main conclusion
Major players prefer to reduce rather than invest. There is still uncertainty, but the priority remains on the side of strengthening the bearish mood.
Technical picture
Last week's trading closed with a candle of uncertainty, while consolidation and sideways movement are preserved. In the weekly TF, the gap between the leading lines of the Ichimoku golden cross has been increased, which is a factor of strengthening in favor of the bears. The daily cross and the weekly short-term trend (1.1827-75) are now providing attraction and support. On the other hand, we will have to overcome the support of 1.1740 (the lower border of the monthly cloud + the upper border of the daily cloud). In case of a sharp change in the mood, a recovery of the upward trend (1.2011) can be expected, followed by a rise to the upper limit of the monthly cloud (1.2167).
The uncertainty at the smaller time frames allowed the key levels in the 1.1845 area (weekly long-term trend + central pivot level) and their horizontal location to merge. Working above the levels gives preference to bullish traders on H1. Today, their reference points are located at 1.1864 - 1.1889 - 1.1908, a breakdown below which will affect the current balance of power. The bears' main interest, in addition to the support levels of the classic pivot levels 1.1820 - 1.1801 - 1.176, is to break through the significant support of the bigger time frames in the level of 1.1740.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classical), Moving Average (120)