GBP/USD – 1H.
According to the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair performed a rebound from the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2789) and continue the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.2937) and the downward trend line, which continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bearish". Late last night, one of the most important and resonant events of recent months took place. In the second reading, the UK Parliament passed the bill "on the internal market of great Britain", proposed by Prime Minister Johnson. 340 parliamentarians voted in favor. Let me remind you that this bill implies a direct violation of the Treaty on Northern Ireland, which was agreed by the parties at the end of last year as part of the Brexit agreement. However, the current law assumes its implementation only if a trade agreement is not concluded between London and Brussels. Thus, Boris Johnson, probably with the help of a new law, decided to put pressure on Brussels to force it to be more compliant in the remaining month and a half of negotiations. In any case, it is too early to put an end to the British and the reputation of Great Britain. Even the adopted bill does not mean that London will violate the agreement, it only provides such an opportunity if necessary. Johnson is afraid that the EU will use the protocol for Northern Ireland in their own interests to the detriment of Britain. The bill "on the internal market of Great Britain" is a kind of safety net.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair has secured under the corrective level of 50.0% (1.2867). Thus, the fall of quotes can be continued in the direction of the next Fibo level of 61.8% (1.2720). Bearish divergence in the CCI indicator increases the probability of a rebound from the level of 50.0% and further decline. However, the trend line on the hourly chart and the level of 161.8% (1.2789) remain more important benchmarks.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes fell to the corrective level of 76.4% (1.2776). The rebound of quotes from this level will allow traders to expect some growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.3199). However, it is more likely to consolidate under it and further fall in quotes.
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair closed under the lower downward trend line, thus, a false breakout of this line followed earlier. The pair returns to a downward trend.
Overview of fundamentals:
There were no economic reports in the UK on Monday. However, it became known that the UK Parliament adopted a controversial bill "on the domestic market". The British pound is still holding off from a new collapse, perhaps because it has already fallen by 700 points.
News calendar for the US and UK:
UK - change in the number of applications for unemployment benefits (06:00 GMT).
UK - unemployment rate (06:00 GMT).
UK - change in average earnings (06:00 GMT).
US - change in industrial production (13:15 GMT).
On September 15, the UK news calendar contains an interesting indicator of unemployment, and in America, I recommend paying attention to the report on industrial production.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The paradoxical COT report on the pound. You can't say otherwise. According to the latest COT report, major players in the "Non-commercial" group were cutting long contracts, however, they were also cutting short contracts. 8 thousand sales and 3.5 thousand purchases. Thus, it turns out that the British even had to show growth. However, on September 2, it began a severe fall and has now fallen by 700 points. The same applies to the "Commercial" group, which increased long-contracts in the amount of 14 thousand and increased short-contracts in the amount of 9 thousand. Again, it turns out that the British pound should have shown growth in the reporting week. In general, the reported data turned out to be very strange and did not correspond to what was happening in the foreign exchange market.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations for traders:
I recommend selling the British currency with a target of 1.2625 if the close is made under the level of 161.8% (1.2789) on the hourly chart. Or with a target of 1.2789, if a rebound is made from the trend line on the hourly chart. I recommend opening purchases of the British dollar if it is fixed above the downward trend line on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.3053.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.