EUR/USD – 1H.
The EUR/USD pair traded very calmly on September 11. The pair's quotes performed a reversal in favor of the US currency and returned to the range between the corrective levels of 61.8% and 76.4%. Thus, today and in the following days, the pair will need to leave this range to start falling or rising. The information background for the pair remains a very important factor that determines the long-term direction of movement. However, in recent weeks and maybe even months, it is clearly not enough for traders to trade more actively. By and large, trading takes place between the levels of 1.1700 and 1.1907. This side corridor is clearly visible on older charts. On Friday, it became known that the Democrats and Republicans once again failed to agree on a package of financial assistance to the American economy. In Congress, there was a completely absurd and purely formal vote for the Republican's proposal to provide the economy with an additional $ 300 billion. Naturally, it was blocked by Democrats and even some Republicans opposed it. However, nothing else should have been expected, since the initial proposal of the Democrats was $ 3 trillion. A little later, they were ready to lower their demands to 2.2 trillion, however, Donald Trump and Republicans still consider this proposal too wasteful. Therefore, the solution to this issue, which is very important for the American economy, continues to remain without progress.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair rose to the upper border of the side trend corridor, rebounded from it, and resumed the process of falling, while remaining inside the side corridor. Thus, the fall in quotations can be continued in the direction of the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729) and the lower border of the side corridor. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator. Fixing the pair's rate above the side corridor will work in favor of the euro and increase the probability of continuing growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 161.8% (1.2027).
EU /USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed another reversal in favor of the EU currency and fixed above the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825), which does not mean much. To make it easier to understand, I have highlighted the movement of the last few weeks with a blue rectangle. This movement is now characterized as a flat.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair has consolidated above the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which may be strong, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On September 11, the US released a report on inflation, which was higher than even good forecasts. However, traders did not react very strongly to this rather important report.
News calendar for the US and the EU:
EU - change in industrial production (09:00 GMT).
On September 14, the European Union and America's economic calendar is almost empty.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was very interesting. According to the results of the previous report, major traders of the "Non-commercial" group closed about 11 thousand long contracts. The latest COT report showed a reduction of another 3.7 thousand purchase contracts. At the same time, speculators increased their sales contracts. Thus, the last two COT reports show that the mood of the most important group of traders (speculators) is beginning to change in the direction of "bearish". The Commercial group was actively getting rid of both long contracts and short contracts, closing almost 40,000 in total. All major players in the foreign exchange market got rid of 69 thousand contracts during the reporting week. Thus, I can conclude that the trend is beginning to change and major players are starting to look closely at purchases of the US dollar.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro with targets of 1.1762 and 1.1703, if the close is made under the level of 76.4% (1.1821) on the hourly chart. I recommend buying the pair if there is a rebound from the lower border of the side corridor on the 4-hour chart of 1.1703 with goals of 1.1762-1.1821.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but for current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.