Hourly chart of the EUR/USD pair
The EUR/USD pair, as a whole, continued to move down on Wednesday, September 9 and it nearly reached the first target level of 1.1752 during the day. However, it was not possible to overcome it and so it continued to move down. The price sharply turned up in the US trading session and grew quite significantly. The situation for the euro/dollar pair continues to be confusing. Not only does the price trade mainly within the side channel of 1.1700-1.1900, but also the very nature of the movement is rather chaotic. It is very difficult to find the trend, even in the very short term. For example, it would be possible to build a downward trend line based on the movement of the last few days, but the price would have to overcome it today. It is also impossible to build a descending channel now, and the pair's quotes left the side channel yesterday. Therefore, the current situation is very unfavorable for trading, especially for beginners. As for today's deals, traders did not get the desired profit again. After the price has settled below the side channel, we expect to move to the lower border of the higher side channel, that is, to 1.1700. However, instead, the price rallied, once again breaking the trading strategy.
No fundamental background for today, and traders continue to prepare for tomorrow's summary of the ECB's recent meeting. We have already said why this is an extremely important event. After all, the European Central Bank can not only apply monetary policy instruments, but also hint at their possible use in the future, provide forecasts for key indicators of the state of the economy (inflation, unemployment and GDP), from which one can understand what the central bank expects in the near future. Traders use all of this information in trading. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech tomorrow, who can also share very important and interesting information. In short, the more dovish Lagarde's speech is and the ECB's decisions are, the more chances for the euro's fall. The term "dovish" (the opposite of "hawkish") refers to the rhetoric and actions of the central bank aimed at easing monetary policy and stimulating the economy. In other words, the central bank recognizes that the economy is currently experiencing problems, so it decides to help the economy. Help can be of a different nature. The most effective methods are direct cash injections into the economy through the repurchase of securities from the open market or lowering the key rate. We believe that the ECB will announce a new expansion of its quantitative stimulus programs in the near future, and at tomorrow's meeting it will hint at the need for such action in the future. Thus, there are great chances that the pair would move down tomorrow.
Possible scenarios for September 10:
1) Novice traders are not recommended to consider buy positions at this time, since the trend is formally downward now, but in fact it is going sideways, but not upward. There are no signals or technical patterns supporting the upward movement at the moment. Thus, buyers need to wait for an upward trend to emerge at least within the sideways channel of 1.1700-1.1900 in order to be able to trade down.
2) Selling continues to look more relevant despite the fact that the pair is currently trading indistinctly, and there is no trend. With a new reversal of the MACD indicator to the downside, it will be possible to try to sell the pair while aiming for 1.1752 and 1.1729, but we also advise you not to forget about Stop Loss. At this time, it is quite inconvenient to trade the pair, therefore, you should always be cautious when making trading decisions.
On the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the Levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Red lines are the channels or trend lines that display the current trend and show in which direction it is better to trade now.
Up/down arrows show where you should sell or buy after reaching or breaking through particular levels.
The MACD indicator (10,20,3) consists of a histogram and a signal line. When they cross, this is a signal to enter the market. It is recommended to use this indicator in combination with trend lines (channels and trend lines).
Important announcements and economic reports that you can always find in the news calendar can seriously influence the trajectory of a currency pair. Therefore, at the time of their release, we recommended trading as carefully as possible or exit the market in order to avoid a sharp price reversal.
Beginners on Forex should remember that not every single trade has to be profitable. The development of a clear strategy and money management are the key to success in trading over a long period of time.