To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need:
All of yesterday's targets and entry points for the pound were achieved with fairly good profit, let's figure it out. If you recall yesterday's forecast for the afternoon, I recommended opening short positions in the pound after testing support at 1.3063, which occurred before the US session opened. Sell positions brought about 50 points. Afterwards, buying on a false breakout from the 1.3007 low made it possible for us to take several dozen points. And finally, settling below 1.3007 by the end of the US session formed a good entry point for short positions. At the moment, bulls have the important task of returning the resistance at 1.3007, since only this scenario will lead to removing the bears' stop orders and lead to an upward correction to the 1.3063 level, where I recommend taking profit. The high of 1.3115 will be the long term goal, around which the moving averages pass. If pressure on the pound persists, and judging by what Prime Minister Boris Johnson is doing now, it will be so, then it is best to postpone buy positions until the next support level 1.2916 is updated, or open long positions immediately on a rebound from the 1.2840 low, counting on a correction of 30 -40 points within the day.
Let me remind you that the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for September 1 showed an increase in both long and short positions, but there were more buyers. Short non-commercial positions increased from 39,790 to 42,901 over the week. Long non-commercial positions increased from 45,390 to 49,213. As a result, the non-commercial net position also slightly increased and remained in positive territory, reaching 6,312 against 5.600.
To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need:
Sellers continue to benefit from any of Boris Johnson's statements regarding Ireland and Northern Ireland, where a trade border agreement may be violated. Sellers have the main task of forming a false breakout in the resistance area of 1.3007, which will form another entry point to short positions. This will lead to selling the pound in the area of a low of 1.2916, which is where I recommend taking profits. The 1.2840 level will be the long term goal. If bears are not active around 1.3007, then it is best to postpone short positions until the 1.3063 high is updated, where sliding averages pass, playing on the side of the bears. You can sell there on a rebound counting on a correction of 30-40 points within the day.
Indicator signals:
Moving averages
Trading is carried out below 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates pressure on the British pound.
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the D1 daily chart.
Bollinger Bands
A breakout of the lower border of the indicator in the 1.2916 area will lead to selling the pound. Growth will be limited by the upper level of the indicator in the 1.3063 area.
Description of indicators
Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 50. It is marked in yellow on the chart. Moving average (moving average, determines the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise). Period 30. It is marked in green on the chart. MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence — convergence/divergence of moving averages) Quick EMA period 12. Slow EMA period to 26. SMA period 9 Bollinger Bands (Bollinger Bands). Period 20 Non-commercial speculative traders, such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions that use the futures market for speculative purposes and meet certain requirements. Long non-commercial positions represent the total long open position of non-commercial traders. Short non-commercial positions represent the total short open position of non-commercial traders. Total non-commercial net position is the difference between short and long positions of non-commercial traders.