EUR/USD – 1H.
On September 4, the EUR/USD pair returned to the corrective level of 61.8% (1.1857) and reversed it in favor of the US currency. Thus, the fall again began in the direction of the Fibo levels of 76.4% (1.1821) and 100.0% (1.1762). On Friday, the United States published an extremely important report for the US dollar. Nonfarm Payrolls (the number of new jobs outside of agriculture) increased by almost 1.4 million, the unemployment rate fell to 8.4%, and wages rose by 4.7% y/y. Thus, traders may well have increased their purchases of the US currency on this day, since it is not often that positive news comes from America recently. And all economic reports can be called positive, as they either exceeded forecasts or met them. However, traders only initially increased their dollar purchases. However, their positive mood evaporated, and the US dollar again fell in price. Also in America, the topic of the coronavirus vaccine has been actively discussed recently. It is reported that as many as three vaccines are in the last stage of clinical trials, and President Donald Trump believes that it will be possible to get a ready-made remedy for the virus and start vaccinating the most vulnerable segments of the population by the end of October. Experts immediately called this statement by Trump politicized. They say that the president wants to have time to create a vaccine before the election to increase his own chances of re-election.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair, after the formation of a bearish divergence at the CCI indicator, performed a fall to the upward trend line, which continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bullish". Thus, the rebound of quotes from this line may work in favor of the euro currency and the resumption of the growth process in the direction of the corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027). Fixing the pair's exchange rate under the trend line will work in favor of the US currency and further fall in quotes towards the level of 100.0% (1.1496).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair performed another reversal in favor of the US dollar and began to fall in the direction of the lower border of the upward trend corridor, closing under which will allow traders to count on the continuation of the fall.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation over the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which may be strong, but in the long term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On September 4, three important reports were released in America that could help the US currency. But instead, traders began to sell the dollar again at the end of the day.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On September 7, the calendars of economic events in America and the European Union are empty. Thus, the information background will not be available today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was very interesting and informative. According to the results of the reporting week, major traders of the "Non-commercial" group closed 10,937 long contracts and opened 3,139 short contracts. This means that during the reporting week, "bearish" sentiment prevailed among speculators. But does this mean that the general mood of speculators has changed to "bearish" and now the euro currency will be actively sold off? The "Non-commercial" group still has 5 times more long than short contracts in its hands. Over the past 10 weeks, speculators have been building up long contracts and getting rid of short. Thus, so far, only one COT report suggests that the upward trend in the euro is "over". Nevertheless, this is a wake-up call for the euro currency.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations for traders:
Today, I recommend selling the euro currency with targets of 1.1821-1.1762, as it was rebounded from the level of 61.8% (1.1857) on the hourly chart. I recommend new purchases of the pair if there is a rebound from the trend line on the 4-hour chart with the goal of 1.1900.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.