Huge numbers of anti-Lukashenko protesters again took to the streets in Minsk and all major cities of Belarus yesterday, on August 30, despite heavy rain. In Minsk, the number of protesters significantly exceeded 100 thousand people. Notably, the population of Minsk is 2 million people. Thus, the protest is becoming only stronger after the elections held on August 9. We should remember that the results of the voting were grossly forged in favor of Lukashenko thus causing the protests. The second reason is the extreme brutality of law enforcement officers during the first days of the protests - beatings, torture in places of detention. At least 6 people died. But even now there are separate beatings. For example, yesterday a well-known football player was brutally detained. After that he was taken to hospital with kidney and spinal injuries.
If fact, all the protests are peaceful. However, Lukashenko accuses opponents of using force. Moreover, there are a lot of videos with Lukashenko and a Kalashnikov rifle in his hands.
The EU did not admit the elections held on August 9 and Lukashenka became illegitimate. Putin, on the other hand, admitted Lukashenko's election and declared his readiness to help Lukashenko with police forces, but only if the protest turns violent. However, this will hardly happen.
Tensions are rising. The protesters demand that Lukashenka sits down at the negotiating table with representatives of the protestors. Both Putin and the EU are supporting a peaceful settlement of the conflict. However, Lukashenko refuses to hold direct talks with the constitutional court as his aide said yesterday when addressing the protesters. Lukashenko wants to talk to "the representatives of youth and businesses". Obviously, this is an attempt to delay the crisis hoping that the protesters will get tired.
The crisis is moving into a protracted phase. Protesters take to the streets in huge numbers. It is impossible to arrest or violently disperse them all as this will bring down the regime immediately. Lukashenko is trying a tactic of targeted repression. The head of the Belaruskali strike Committee has already been arrested, and two members of the constitutional court have been arrested for 10 days. On Sunday, a total of 140 protesters were detained.
EU urges Russia not to intervene in Belarus
Lukashenko wants to stay in power even if he will have to give Belarus to Putin. The EU is ready to recognize Putin's role in Belarus. However, it is against Moscow's military and police intervention. If Moscow suppresses the protests with the its military, the EU may impose very tough sanctions.
Putin is extremely interested in keeping Belarus in the sphere of influence, but he also wants to avoid new sanction. Moreover, he does not want to fight with Belarusians for Lukashenko.
The protesters show normal attitude to Putin but exactly until the moment when Putin's military will begin to beat them with batons.
Now, the question is who has more fortitude and patience.