EUR/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On August 17, the EUR/USD pair continued the growth process inside the upward trend corridor, which continues to characterize the current mood of traders as "bullish". There was no news from America or the European Union on Monday. However, some very interesting reports have started to appear from American billionaires who have started buying gold. Gold has always been considered a protective asset in times of any crisis, since it is considered that it can not devalue, unlike money or shares of any company that can be severely affected by the economic crisis. For example, one of the most famous investors, billionaire Warren Buffett, has previously criticized gold for being the most unattractive tool for investing. However, with the arrival of the next economic crisis in the United States, the largest in the last 50-80 years, Warren's companies suddenly began to invest in gold mining companies. The world's leading analysts immediately concluded that the most famous investor stopped trusting banks, as the central banks of the world's leading countries may have lost control of what is happening and print billions and trillions, thereby killing fiat money. Of course, such actions of Buffett's investment funds do not mean that the US economy is over. This only means that it can recover from the crisis for a very long time and hard.
EUR/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the quotes of the EUR/USD pair, after rebounding from the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729), continue the growth process in the direction of the upper border of the side corridor. The rebound from the upper border of the corridor will work in favor of the US currency and the beginning of the pair's fall in the direction of the lower border of the corridor and the corrective level of 127.2% (1.1729). Fixing quotes above the corridor will increase the chances of further growth towards the next corrective level of 161.8% (1.2027).
EUR/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a new consolidation above the corrective level of 261.8% (1.1825), but this level is located inside the side corridor, which is represented as a rectangle on this chart. Thus, this signal is not strong and requires purchases of the pair.
EUR/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair performed a consolidation over the "narrowing triangle", which now allows us to count on further growth of the euro currency, which can be very strong and long-term.
Overview of fundamentals:
On August 17, there were no economic reports in Europe or the United States, no important reports or news. Thus, the information background had absolutely no effect on the mood of traders.
News calendar for the United States and the European Union:
On August 18, the calendars of the European Union and the United States are empty, so the information background will also be absent today.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report was very eloquent. Large market players in total (for all groups) closed both long and short contracts during the reporting week. However, we are more interested in the "Non-commercial" group, which actively got rid of sales contracts and increased long. Thus, large speculators continued to favor the euro currency, while not favoring the US dollar. The fact that the euro currency continues to trade near its peaks for many months should not be surprising. The largest traders who enter the market in order to make a profit continue to buy the euro currency. Thus, the COT report allows us to conclude that the mood of large traders has not changed during the reporting week. The US dollar is still weak.
Forecast for EUR/USD and recommendations to traders:
Today, I recommend buying the euro currency with the goal of 1.2027, if it is fixed above the upper line of the 1.1908 corridor. I recommend selling the pair with the target level of 1.1729 after fixing the price below the ascending corridor on the hourly chart or rebounding from the level of 1.1908.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.