GBP/USD – 1H.
Hello, traders! On the hourly chart, the quotes of the GBP/USD pair have closed several times over the past few days above and below the ascending and descending trend lines. Thus, the situation for the British is now the same as for the euro. Traders cannot decide which currency to buy at a given time and which to sell. The British dollar also reached quite high levels of overbought, but due to the almost complete absence of bear traders on the market, the US dollar can not show growth. Thus, the pair's quotes are currently trading inside a side corridor, the boundaries of which are very relative. The main thing you need to understand now is that there is no trend, and trade in accordance with it. Apart from the fact that there is no trend, there is also no news from the UK. At the beginning of this week, 5 or 6 important economic reports were received from Britain at once, but it does not matter whether traders paid attention to them, since the British dollar still remained in a relatively narrow range, that is, in a sideways corridor. Thus, all the American and British reports for the first four days did not help the pair to break out of the side corridor. The same may be true today. Several reports from America should be extremely strong and unexpected for traders, so that the pair passes at least 80-90 points in one direction and leaves the limits of the corridor indicated in the picture.
GBP/USD – 4H.
On the 4-hour chart, the GBP/USD pair performed a reversal in favor of the English currency and again tried to return to the corrective level of 161.8% (1.3157). The rebound of the pair's quotes from this level will allow traders to expect a new reversal in favor of the US currency and a resumption of the fall in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.2964). The pound is now also in the side corridor, which is limited to 1.3005 and 1.3125. Today, the divergence is not observed in any indicator.
GBP/USD – Daily.
On the daily chart, the pair's quotes performed an increase to the corrective level of 100.0% (1.3199), but the level of 161.8% on the 4-hour chart stopped the pair's growth. Closing the rate above the 100.0% level will work in favor of further growth in the direction of the Fibo level of 127.2% (1.3684).
GBP/USD – Weekly.
On the weekly chart, the pound/dollar pair performed an increase to the lower downward trend line. A pullback from this line may allow the pair to perform a reversal in favor of the US dollar and resume the process of falling towards the approximately 1.1500 level. This is a long-term perspective.
Overview of fundamentals:
On Thursday, the UK economic news calendar was empty, and in America only one report was worth noting. It was this report that helped the dollar grow by several dozen points.
News calendar for the US and UK:
US - change in retail trade volume (12:30 GMT).
US - change in industrial production (13:15 GMT).
US - consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan (14:00 GMT).
On August 14, the information background will be interesting and completely American. Three reports at once can support the US currency today, but they need to be better than traders' expectations.
COT (Commitments of Traders) report:
The latest COT report on the pound was again quite unexpected. Let me remind you that in the last two weeks, speculators either got rid of long contracts or opened more short contracts. That is, according to the logic of things, the Briton should have started falling two weeks ago. However, instead, the growth of its quotes continued. A new COT report showed that a group of "Non-commercial" traders has started to re-open long contracts. However, the previous two weeks can't be crossed out just like that. Despite the fact that speculators have again begun to favor the British, I still doubt its prospects. On the other hand, if the information background from America deteriorates, the fall of the dollar may well resume.
Forecast for GBP/USD and recommendations to traders:
I recommend selling the pound with the goal of 1,3005, if a new rebound is made from the level of 161.8% (1.3157) on the 4-hour chart. I recommend buying the British currency again if the quotes close above the level of 1.3125 with the goals of 1.3150 - 1.3200.
Terms:
"Non-commercial" - major market players: banks, hedge funds, investment funds, private, large investors.
"Commercial" - commercial enterprises, firms, banks, corporations, companies that buy currency, not for speculative profit, but to ensure current activities or export-import operations.
"Non-reportable positions" - small traders who do not have a significant impact on the price.