EUR/USD: plan for the American session on July 20

To open long positions on EURUSD, you need:

Today, it became known that the EU summit has been extended for another day, the fourth in a row, where EU leaders will try to agree on a plan to help the economy in the amount of 750 billion euros and the EU budget for the next 7 years. Given that the summit was originally scheduled for two days, its second extension gives confidence to the euro buyers that agreements will be reached. This allowed the bulls in the first half of the day to still gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.1453, despite a weak report on German producer prices, which declined sharply in June this year. The main task of buyers for the second half of the day is to hold the level of 1.1453. While trading is above this range, you can expect to continue the trend movement to the maximum area of 1.1485 and to update the larger resistance of 1.1515, where I recommend fixing the profits. Given that in the second half of the day, the focus will shift only to the EU summit and its results, since the release of fundamental statistics is not planned, a correction of the euro is not excluded. In the case of a return to the support of 1.1453, it is best to postpone long positions until the minimum of 1.1412 is updated, from where you can buy euros only when a false breakout is formed. A larger area for purchases on the rebound will be the minimum of 1.1371, from which you can expect a correction of 20-30 points within the day.

To open short positions on EURUSD, you need:

The task of sellers for the second half of the day is quite clear. They need to return the pair to the level of 1.1453, however, they will be able to do this only after another failure to find a compromise at the EU summit. The pair's decline below the level of 1.1453 will increase pressure on the euro and lead to the closing of several speculative long positions, which will quickly push EUR/USD into the area of the middle of the channel of 1.1412. Fixing and under this area will push the pair to larger support of 1.1371, where I recommend fixing the profit. If the demand for the euro continues in the afternoon, and as I noted above, everything will depend on the results of the summit, then in case of growth, you can open short positions only after a false breakout is formed in the resistance area of 1.1485 or sell EUR/USD immediately on a rebound from the high of 1.1514, counting on correction of 20-30 points of correction within the day.

Signals of indicators:

Moving averages

Trading is conducted above the 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates the bullish nature of the market.

Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.

Bollinger Bands

A break in the upper limit of the indicator around 1.1460 will strengthen the demand for the euro. A breakdown of the lower border in the area of 1.1412 will lead to a larger sell-off of the euro.

Description of indicators