Latest COT report (Commitments of Traders). Weekly outlook for GBP/USD
The latest COT report (Commitments of Traders on 07.14.20.) showed a decline in open interest in the pound (179340 (07.14.20.) against 180696 (07.07.20.)). This time, a decline in interest was formed due to a decrease in the net positions of all major market participants whose groups are considered when analyzing the report. The shortened short position of Non-Commercial was 13586 (-2822), the long position of Commercial 22908 (-3710), and the net position of Dealer intermediate declined to 57301 (-7357). As a result, the net position of the general report was reduced by 888, with a preponderance of long positions by only 9322, while the number of long contracts was reduced almost twice more actively during the reporting period (1793 vs. 905).
Main conclusion
The reduction on all fronts led to a lack of performance of the pair. There is uncertainty, in which the final long-term preponderance of forces is still on the side of the players to increase.
Technical picture
In technical terms, the preponderance of players' strength to increase lies in the location and work of the pair on the main supports of the older time intervals. Therefore, the chances of players to increase to continue the rise, with the acquisition of new activity and effectiveness, are preserved and have an advantage. The opponent will be able to change the existing balance of power and achieve changes in prospects if they can securely consolidate under the supports of 1.2440-60 (weekly Tenkan + daily Kijun + daily cloud). The loss of the weekly short-term and daily long-term trend will allow us to expect further strengthening of bearish sentiment and consider new downward targets.
The pair continues to test key resistances in the smaller halves. Today, they have joined forces in the area of 1.2550-64 (central pivot level + weekly long-term trend). Working below the levels preserves the advantages of H1 on the side of the bearish players; the classic pivot levels (1.2525 - 1.2487 - 1.2462) serve as intraday support. A consolidation above which will change the distribution of forces on H1. The upward guidance will be 1.2588 - 1.2613 - 1.2651.
Ichimoku Kinko Hyo (9.26.52), Pivot Points (Classic), Moving Average (120)