The probability of continuing the upward movement is still above 70%. However, last week's closing occurred outside the average movement which, in a vast majority of cases, requires a return to the level of 109.38. According to statistics, this probability is close to 90%, and it makes purchases from the current marks not profitable. A return to the level of 109.38 will allow the required prices to continue working in the upward direction.
Although sales are possible, it is necessary to understand that the decline is corrective, and that the resumption of growth can be rapid. This makes sales not very attractive in this segment of the market.
If today's trading closes below 109.37, an alternative model of deep correction will be developed. This will allow us to consider an NPC reduction from 109.00 to 108.90, which will make getting the most favorable prices for the purchase of the instrument possible. It is important not to forget that the upward movement is an impulse.
DailyCZ - daily control zone: A zone formed by important data from the futures market which changes several times a year.
Weekly CZ - weekly control zone: A zone formed by important marks of the futures market which change several times a year.
Monthly CZ - monthly control zone: A zone that reflects the average volatility over the past year.