4-hour timeframe
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 82p - 138p - 65p - 66p - 50p.
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 81p (average).
The GBP/USD currency pair continues its upward movement, not paying attention to anything. There has not been a significant strengthening of the pound today, however, no correction has begun. This is despite the fact that two more important macroeconomic indicators came out in the UK today. However, market participants once again, out of habit, ignored them, and we can only ask ourselves questions: "When will all the failed macroeconomic reports from the UK be worked out" and "where will the pound go when the traders pay attention to the failed statistics on Great Britain?" "As you might guess, both Tuesday's publications failed, as did virtually all of the statistics from the UK over the past two months. In monthly terms, GDP showed zero growth, a month earlier a value of -0.1% MOM was recorded, and a month earlier there were even losses of -0.2% MOM. Industrial production grew by a meager 0.1% in October, while expert forecasts predicted an increase of at least 0.2% MOM. In annual terms, industrial production lost 1.3%. However, traders are not interested in this information right now. Market participants continue to see a bright future with Boris Johnson at the head of the country, at the head of Parliament and outside the European Union. We will not discuss now whether it is really good for Britain to leave the EU. Three years after the referendum, such a question should not be raised at all. However, from time to time he still appears on the front of the stage. And with it, discussions begin, how all of Johnson's plans can end. The prime minister's plans, who still has not won more than one significant victory at the helm of the country.
Only two days left before the fateful parliamentary elections. All sociological polls say the same thing: Conservatives are leading and their leadership is +9-14% over Labour. The rest of the parties, according to polls, are far behind. According to the calculations of The Times newspaper, in this alignment of forces, Conservatives can get more than half of the parliamentary mandates, which will allow them to form a majority government and, accordingly, freely implement Brexit. However, this may not happen, some experts say. The biggest danger for the Conservative Party now is the so-called "tactical vote." Voting, in which a vote will not be given for a particular party, because the British citizen is suited by the political principles and the program of this particular party and deputy, but in which the vote will be "for" Brexit or "against" Brexit. Incidentally, we have repeatedly talked about this long before the election. Despite the strong position of the Conservatives, we recall that 48% of the British population were against Brexit back in 2016 and, accordingly, can vote for anyone other than the Conservatives. Moreover, now that the regions that support the Labour Party, which support the Conservatives, are approximately known, according to the organization "Best for Britain", clearly coordinated actions of only 40,000 people can be enough for the Conservatives not to get the majority of seats in Parliament. For example, it is possible to determine regions where the distribution of votes between Conservatives and Labour may be approximately the same and then every thousand or one hundred votes for one or another deputy will matter. In such regions, actions can be held aimed at preventing the Conservatives from winning and preventing Brexit from taking place.
Therefore, the pound continues to show its favorite form of strengthening in the last three years - "growth on expectations." Expectations for a brighter future and the implementation of Brexit. However, if suddenly the election results show that the Conservatives can not form a ruling, then a wave of disappointment can overwhelm traders, and the pound will go back to its multi-year lows. Then traders will remember all the failed macroeconomic statistics at once. If Johnson's party nevertheless wins by the necessary margin from the pursuers, then two options are possible for the pound sterling. The first is no reaction from traders, since the current pound sterling rate has already taken into account the victory of Boris Johnson three times. The second is that if a wave of optimism engulfs markets even more, then British currency purchases will continue. However, even in this situation, sooner or later, traders will begin to pay attention to the weak macroeconomic statistics of Great Britain.
Trading recommendations:
GBP/USD resumed a slight upward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to trade for an increase while aiming for 1.3216 and 1.33234. It is not recommended to consider selling the pound now, since the pair is far from the Kijun-sen critical line, traders ignore any macroeconomic data, and the pound rises in price solely on expectations of the Conservative party winning the election. The consumer price index in the United States will be published tomorrow, as well as the Fed meeting, but these events can also be ignored by market participants.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen is the red line.
Kijun-sen is the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.
Support / Resistance Classic Levels:
Red and gray dotted lines with price symbols.
Pivot Level:
Yellow solid line.
Volatility Support / Resistance Levels:
Gray dotted lines without price designations.
Possible price movement options:
Red and green arrows.