On Monday, tradings in the market was quite restrained. This was due, first of all, to the lack of important fundamental statistics. Investors are also focused on the last meetings of the European Central Bank and the Federal reserve this year. While many exports expect rates to remain unchanged, traders expect to see a clearer monetary policy course from the new ECB chief Christine Lagarde. The Fed's decision on interest rates will be made on Wednesday, and the ECB on Thursday.
If the European regulator announces a possible easing of monetary policy in the future, the pressure on risky assets may return, as it seems that the Fed leadership may take a break in the cycle of lowering interest rates.
As I noted above, the data that was published yesterday afternoon did not have much impact on the EUR / USD pair. The index showing employment trends rose slightly in November this year. According to the Conference Board report, the employment trends index rose in November 2019 to 110.18 points from 109.96 points in October 2019. However, compared to November 2018, the index showed an increase of only 0.1%. Given that many experts predict further steady employment growth in the coming months, this situation will clearly affect the Fed leaders' decision regarding interest rates. Let me remind you that Friday's report on employment in the United States indicate a decline in the unemployment rate to the level of 3.5%. The Department of Labor also reported that the number of jobs outside agriculture rose by 266,000 in November 2019.
As for the technical picture of the EUR/USD pair, it remains unchanged. Bulls failed to show anything at the resistance level of 1.1070, so only a breakdown of this range will increase the demand for risky assets and return the trading instrument to the highs of last week in the area of 1.1115 and 1.1160. If the pressure on risk assets continues, the breakthrough of support at 1.1050 will lead to a further downward movement in the area of 1.1000 and 1.0960.
USD/CAD and AUD/USD
Data on the Canadian housing market led to a slight strengthening of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar, even though building permits in Canada fell in October for the second month in a row.
According to a report by Statistics Canada, building permits in October this year decreased by 1.5% and settled to 8.28 billion Canadian dollars. Economists had hoped for an increase of up to 2%. Compared to the same period the previous year, the number of building permits in October increased by 1.1%.
Although it was slightly lower than economists' forecasts, the bookmarks of new homes in Canada in November, on the contrary, rose. According to the Mortgage and Housing Corporation of Canada, the number of mortgages of new homes in November 2019 increased by 0.3% and sized to 201,318 homes per year against 200,674 in October 2019. Economists had expected a rise in bookmarks up to 215,000.
As for the technical picture of the USD/CAD pair, the sellers' focus is now at the level of 1.3220, a breakthrough that will lead to the formation of another pressure on the pair and a return to the support of 1.3185. If buyers manage to regain the resistance of 1.3250, the consolidation above this level will allow the bulls to reach the highs of 1.3280 and 1.3320.
The Australian dollar disregarded today the statements of the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. In his speech, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted that Australian economic growth in the 3rd quarter of this year, for the most part, was in line with the expectations of bank economists, however, a high level of debt obligation could dampen growth in consumer spending. Despite this, Lowe is confident of a gradual improvement in consumer spending, which will have a positive effect on the GDP growth by the end of the year, and support the economy early next year.
As for the technical picture of the AUD/USD pair, the trade is still conducted at the side channel 0.6815-0.6860, which going beyond will determine the further direction of the trading instrument. A break of 0.6860 will provide the pair with new buyers and continue the upward trend to the highs of 0.6890 and 0.6940. A breakthrough of the lower border will hit the stop orders of the bulls and dump the trading instrument to the lows of 0.6780 and 0.6700.