As expected, nothing happened on the market at all while the Americans celebrated Thanksgiving. At the same time, several rather interesting data were published in Europe. In particular, the growth rate of consumer lending in Europe accelerated from 3.4% to 3.5%. However, the data coincided with the forecasts, and few people could be impressed. But the most important thing is that these data are of little interest to anyone and have practically no effect on the market. Nevertheless, preliminary data on inflation in Spain and Germany are more interesting, especially in anticipation of the publication of data for the entire euro area. Thus in Spain, the fourth euro zone economy, inflation accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4%. Although as expected, it did not accelerate in the flagship of Europe, Germany, inflation, and just remained unchanged. Therefore, there are suspicions that today's data across the Euro area, will be slightly worse than forecasts.
So, today, it is quite obvious that the focus of attention is only the preliminary data on inflation in Europe. Moreover, no data is released at all in the United States. As a result, forecasts indicate that inflation will accelerate from 0.7% to 0.9%. However, do not forget about yesterday's data on inflation in Germany, and since inflation is not growing in the largest economy of the euro area, there is every reason to believe that it will not accelerate even within the whole of Europe. So almost certainly, the data will be worse than forecasts, which will seriously disappoint investors. After all, they proceed precisely from long-term inflation forecasts, which are destined not to be successful, which means that there is a need to revise their investment plans. This is not in favor of a single European currency.
Inflation (Europe):
In terms of technical analysis, we see all the same fluctuation within the psychological level of 1.1000, which holds back the quote from the beginning of the trading week. The characteristic slowdown clearly reflects the indecision in terms of the main recovery, relative to the elongated correction, where the level of 1.1000 plays the role of a support. Thus, multidirectional interest set variable boundaries 1.1000 / 1.1025, where the oscillation continues up to now, waiting for the next impulse.
In terms of a general consideration of the trading chart, we see an oblong correction from 1.0879 to 1.1180, after which a long recovery process has begun, playing back a little more than half of the entire course.
It is likely to assume that the fluctuation along the reference level of 1.1000 will remain in the market and only in the case of a characteristic push, possibly against the background of statistical data, we will see an attempt to break the accumulation. The best development strategy is still to analyze the control points 1.0990 / 1.1035, for their breakdown.
Concretizing all of the above into trading signals:
- Long positions are considered in case of price fixing higher than 1.1035, not a puncture shadow.
- Short positions are considered in case of fixing the price lower than 1.0990, not a puncture shadow.
From the point of view of a comprehensive indicator analysis, we see that many indicators have taken a neutral position due to multi-day narrow accumulation and only daily periods maintain a general downward market mood.