4-hour timeframe
Amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 107p - 93p - 264p - 298p - 134p.
Average volatility over the past 5 days: 179p (high).
Well, the digest of the latest Brexit news is as follows. European Union chief negotiator Michel Barnier said the parties could still reach an agreement before the end of the week. Accordingly, at the EU summit, the parties can shake hands, and finally break up on October 31. If everything goes according to such a scenario, then this will be Boris Johnson's first tangible victory, but such a victory that will erase all previous defeats and globally increase his political ratings. A snap election to Parliament after Brexit could strengthen the position of Conservatives in the government if Johnson manages to leave the EU with an agreement. However, recall that Theresa May also negotiated with the European Union. Thrice. All three times her draft "deal" was "cut down" by MPs. What could stop them from doing the same now? After all, no one knows what kind of agreements Boris Johnson made with the European Union, that the latter's representatives very quickly changed their rhetoric from "skeptical of Johnson's proposals" and "a deal is hardly possible" to "make a deal before the end of the week." Either the EU was simply afraid that Johnson would still find a way around the UK law, obliging him to reschedule Brexit if the deal could not be reached before October 19, or Johnson opened the cards in private conversations with EU representatives and explained that Britain would leave the EU on October 31 and the Parliament will not be able to prevent this, or Johnson is correctly bluffing, so much so that the bloc is already ready to let Britain go in peace. We will learn all this in the coming days. But, despite the fact that optimism is simply engulfing the markets in the last few trading days, we warn traders against buying in the style of "bitcoin when it grows". Despite the strong growth of the pound sterling, a few days ago, the currency was at the bottom, and we saw such highs more than once, each time they ended in a stronger fall.
In addition to the Brexit topic, there are also macroeconomic statistics from the UK, which also matters, if only in terms of future changes in the monetary policy of the British regulator. For example, today it became known that the unemployment rate in August rose to 3.9% y/y, and the average wage including bonuses was slightly lower than analysts expectations. It's not critical, but it's a slowdown and deterioration in performance. In general, the UK now has two paths, and they are now at different poles. Either they face another postponement of Brexit, the continuation of the war between Johnson and the Parliament, a re-election. As an alternative - a "hard" Brexit, which is even worse. The optimistic scenario is that an agreement is reached, and then the UK economy will not suffer so much, and the pound will begin to recover against the US currency.
The technical picture now implies the continuation of the upward movement, but the movement is very strong, so technical indicators are not working correctly right now. Plus, increased volatility, and now it is as much as 179 points on average in 5 days, means increased risks. But no one can predict how it will end in both the EU summit and the parliamentary vote on October 19, over a possible deal with the European Union.
Trading recommendations:
The pound/dollar currency pair resumed its upward movement. Thus, we recommend now continuing to trade on the rise, especially to those who are already in long positions, with targets at 1.2841 and 1.2948. But the opening of new purchases, from our point of view, involves high risks.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of the illustration:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen is the red line.
Kijun-sen is the blue line.
Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line.
Senkou Span B - light purple dashed line.
Chikou Span - green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD indicator:
Red line and bar graph with white bars in the indicator window.