4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 143p - 54p - 98p - 77p - 117p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 98p (85p).
On Thursday, February 14, the British pound sterling resumed a downward movement, with all indicators moving down again. In principle, what happened was expected. Even when the pair was growing quite unreasonably (until January 25), we wrote that we expect a decline as a test of this groundless growth. Plus, we write about it every day, we do not receive any positive news from the UK. Today, there were no significant publications in Britain. In the US, retail sales reports were published, which frankly failed, but even this did not save the pound from a new wave of selling. This is absolutely not surprising. Traders continue to get rid of the problematic currency, which in the last two years has only been associated with fears and uncertainties. Theresa May can not, and few people believe that she can solve the issue with Brexit at all and take into account all the wishes of the European Union and the British Parliament in the package of conditions for a country's exit from the EU. It seems that everyone has already understood that the prime minister is betting on the absence of an alternative to her plan and will try to promote it in Parliament until the very end. The EU does not intend to make any concessions. Therefore, we believe that the pair's downward movement will continue, plus the volatility of the instrument has increased and, accordingly, the growth rate of the decline. Tomorrow, the UK will release a report on retail sales for January, but even if it turns out to be positive, it will provide significant support to the British currency.
Trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD currency pair resumed a strengthened downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to trade on the decline with targets of 1.2716 and 1.2681 before the MACD indicator reverses to the top.
Long positions in small lots will become relevant after traders overcome the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the first target will be the Senkou Span B line, but there is still no fundamental reason to move up.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.