4-hour timeframe
The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 40p - 50p - 44p - 30p - 63p.
Average amplitude for the last 5 days: 45p (40p).
The EUR/USD currency pair on Tuesday, February 12, has started a weak upward correction for the purpose of the critical line. We cannot say that this correction was provoked by any news or macroeconomic publications. Most likely, as we warned earlier, the pair failed to overcome the area of 1.1270-1.1290 and now we are waiting for at least an upward correction. We continue to believe that the probability of an upward movement in the coming days to 1,1500 is greater. This conclusion is from purely technical factors. At the moment, the MACD indicator has moved upwards, but its turn back down can signal the resumption of a downward movement, which can result in a breakthrough of a strong support area and, as a result, the continuation of a downtrend. But the consolidation of the price above the Kijun-sen line will mean the readiness of traders to continue buying to the level of 1,1500. From a fundamental point of view, there is simply nothing to note at the moment, today was completely empty. Actually, this is clearly seen from the 46-point volatility. In the evening, Jerome Powell will give a speech, and there is little hope that it will stir up the markets and, in particular, the EUR/USD pair. Powell's weak speech will coincide with the technical expectations of traders, which will help start stronger purchases of the pair. At the same time, it was reported that the Republicans and Democrats agreed at a closed meeting on the protection of the southern border of the United States. However, whatever these agreements are, they must be approved by Donald Trump, otherwise a new "Shutdown" is quite likely.
Trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair started to adjust. Thus, it is recommended to wait until the end of the correction, as indicated by the MACD indicator turning down, and then resume the shorts with targets at 1.1274 and 1.1247.
Buy-positions can be considered in small lots after the bulls overcome the Kijun-sen line with the first goal of the resistance level of 1.1414.
In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the timing of their release should also be taken into account.
Explanation of illustration:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-sen-red line.
Kijun-sen – blue line.
Senkou span a – light brown dotted line.
Senkou span B – light purple dotted line.
Chikou span – green line.
Bollinger Bands Indicator:
3 yellow lines.
MACD:
Red line and histogram with white bars in the indicator window.