The currency pair Euro / Dollar for the last trading day showed volatility slightly below the average daily, 63 points. As a result, it has maintained the downward inertial move. From the point of view of technical analysis, the quotation reached the long-awaited range level of 1.1280 / 1.1300, but the "bearish" interest turned out to be so great that, due to inertia, the quote went lower, but still remained within the range of the range response. There was no data reported regarding the Information and news background for the last trading day in Europe. The only thing that can be singled out is the statement by the EU's main negotiator for the Brexit Michel Barnier. According to him, time is very limited.
Today, the focus of attention is the speech of the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. He is expected to receive clarifications regarding the plans of the regulator in the current year, as well as, what will happen to the interest rate. Naturally, this event can play into the hands of volatility, which might possibly increase. US Vacancies, the number of which increased from 6,888 thousand to 6,960 thousand.
USA 18:00 MSK - Number of open vacancies in the labor market JOLTS (December)
USA 20:45 MSK - Speech by Fed Chairman Chairman
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see the quotation dangling within the range of 1.1280 / 1.1300, thus, forming a kind of two-digit stagnation-pullback. It is likely to assume that this kind of bumpiness will still remain on the market. However, a foothold exists. Nevertheless, looking at history, we can see that this level of 1.1280 / 1.1300 played a significant role in the market.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Buy positions are considered in the case of price fixing higher than 1.1315.
- Positions for sale - I would not want to run into a position ahead of time. If we analyze the history, we can see that the bumpkin within the range level of 1.1280 / 1.1300 was repeated and a rebound was shown afterwards. Thus, we will consider selling positions only in the case of working out the range level of 1.1280 / 1.1300 in the downward direction (as a mirror level), with a clear fixation lower than 1.1250. In this case, the prospect of the local minimum from November 2018 - 1.1214.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we can see that a neutral interest in the short term has appeared against the background of the current ambiguous stagnation. Intraday and mid-term perspective preserves the downward interest against the general background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month/ Quarter / Year.
(February 12 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 33 points. At the time of Jerome Powell's speech, volatility may increase, exceeding the daily average.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1350 *; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1300 **; 1.1214 **; 1.1120; 1.1000
* Periodic level
** Range Level