For the last trading day, the currency pair Pound / Dollar displayed a relatively low volatility of 98 points, while maintaining a downward condition.From the point of view of technical analysis, we have an exact coincidence of previously set forecasts. The periodic level of 1.2920, which held the quotation for almost six days, still fell. Also, the earlier accumulation played on the market as a regrouping of trading forces, giving the sellers the opportunity to resume their progress. On the other hand, information and news background which was published yesterday has a very sad statistics from the UK. The growth rate of the economy fell to its lowest level since 2012, and as predicted, the current year, will become the weakest after the 2009 recession. If we analyze the dry numbers, we have data on GDP (y / y) (Q4) decreasing from 6% to 1.3%, and industrial production (m / m) (December) goes even further minus: Prev. -0.1% ---> Fct. -0.7%. Presently, we are not surprised that the quote broke out of the stagnation of 1.2920 and went down. Returning to the information background, we have the news that the Head of the British Government, Theresa May, plans to resign this summer, and before leaving, Theresa expects to train the receiver for her place. This information is confirmed by Greg Clark which is the Minister for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy.
In terms of the economic calendar, we have a full day today. The first thing you should pay attention to is the speech of Mark Carney, the head of the Bank of England, from whom you should not expect anything good, since it will be about the risks and unpredictability of Brexit again. Next comes the statistics from the United States on regards with open vacancies, of which the number has increased from 6888 thousand to 6960 thousand. Last will be by Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, who will speak at 20:45 Moscow time. Preciseness is expected from it because it is about the interest rate in the current year, and there can be anything that will certainly give the market volatility.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see how the quote of the pair reached the first predicted value of 1.2850, after which, it moved into stagnation and rollback. It is likely to assume that the foothold is not far away, however traders are still focused on a more significant level, and it is 1.2770 / 1.2800, wherein it is possible to speak in full force about the correction.
Based on the available data, it is possible to break down a number of variations. Let us consider them:
- Positions to buy - I will not deny that in some aspects, traders considered the value 1.2850 as a possible point of support. I wrote about this in the previous review. Yet, most of them still consider the primary coordinates of 1.2770 / 1.2800, from which it was planned to look out for the point to enter.
- Positions for sale, as has repeatedly pointed out in previous reviews, traders are focused on the value of 1.2850-1.2770.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing the different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that there was an upward interest against the background of the value of 1.2850 in the short term. While in intraday and medium-term, it retains a downward interest against the general background of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 12 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 31 points. t is likely to assume that due to the current information background, the volatility of the day can reach the daily average.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.2920 *; 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.3200 * 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.2850 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level