The currency pair Pound / Dollar for yesterday 's trading day showed a high volatility of 126 points, as a result continuing the downward move. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see the long-awaited breakdown of the 1.3000 / 1.3050 range level, which has been keeping the quote for a long time. What we have is the execution of the first predicted point of 1.2920, where the price has approached with surgical precision. The news background once again has a big chunk of rumors, statements, and just statements about Brexit. We will start with Theresa May's recent trip to Northern Ireland, where, as always, "Iron Lady 2" vowed that there would be no hard boundaries and she would do everything for that. At the same time, on the sidelines of the British government, they secretly discussed the possibility of postponing British exit from the EU from March 29 to May 24. Of course, we understand that this is a rumor, but at the same time we understand that the time until the day "X" will remain so short that the news of this nature seems to be true. Finally, there was news that Theresa May was again in Brussels for talks with Jean-Claude Juncker regarding the Brexit agreement. How many times have she been told that the EU will not make concessions, but we will see what will happen this time, the meeting is scheduled for Thursday.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have a package of statistics from the United States:
USA 16:30 Moscow time - Number of building permits issued: : Prev. 1,328M ---> Forecast 1,290M
US - Basic orders for durable goods (m / m), the forecast growth of 0.2% (prev.)
US 16:30 Moscow Time - Basic Retail Sales (MoM) Prev. 0.2% ---> Forecast 0.0%
United States - GDP (sq / sq.): Prev. 3.4% ---> Forecast 2.6% (prev.)
United States - Retail Sales (MoM): Prev. 0.2% ---> Forecast 0.1% (prev.)
Further development
Analyzing the current trading schedule, we see that after reaching the first predicted point of 1.2920, the quotation went into a stagnation stage in the form of consolidation bumper of double-digit doji-type candles. It is likely to assume that bearish interest is still on the market and there are prerequisites for the regrouping of trading forces, where traders are tracking clear price fixes below 1.2920.
Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Consider buying positions in case of a rollback to 1.3000.
- Positions for sale, as he wrote in the previous review, traders were guided by the breakdown level of 1.300, which has already happened. The first prospect has already reached 1.2920, now traders are waiting for the continuation of the banquet with the movement at 1.2850.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that in the short term there is a rising interest against the background of stagnation, indicators can be interchangeable. Intraday and mid-term prospects focused on the downward direction.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year.
(February 6 was based on the time of publication of the article)
The current time volatility is 48 points. In the case of overcoming the value of 1.2920, an increase in volatility is likely.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.3200 *; 1.3300; 1.3440 **; 1.3580 *; 1.3700
Support areas: 1.2920 *; 1.2830 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **.
* Periodic level
** Range Level