On Wednesday at 18.00 London time, the results of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be announced. The Fed's Open Market Operations Committee intends to take a decision to tighten its monetary policy. According to the analysts' expectations, the regulator will raise the base rate by 0.25% to the level of 1.75 - 2%.
At the moment, the probability of such an outcome exceeds 80%, and the decision of the American Central Bank is already laid in the market expectations. However, an increase in the Fed rate should not lead to a sharp reaction of the dollar.
Trend analysis (Figure 1).
On Tuesday, the market moved in the side channel ahead of interest rates in the USA to be released on Wednesday at 18.00 London time. On Wednesday, in anticipation of news, the market will work in the side channel and preferably work on small timeframes (up to 60 minutes).
Fig. 1 (daily chart).
Complex analysis:
- Indicator analysis - up;
- Fibonacci levels - up;
- volumes - upwards;
- candle analysis - neutral;
- trend analysis - up;
- Bollinger lines - down;
- Weekly schedule - up.
General conclusion.
On Wednesday, before the release of the news at 18.00 London time, the market will move up in the side channel.
Amid the increase in rates, the lower target is 1.1709 with the retracement level of 38.2% (yellow dotted line).
If the stakes are left unchanged, the upper target is 1.1830 on the upper fractal (red dashed line).