The US dollar, which remained under pressure in tandem with the euro and the British pound after the release of weak inflation data in the US, regained some of its positions. Growth occurred after the publication of the minutes of the March meeting of the Federal Reserve System, which were full of optimism about its future prospects for economic growth.
As indicated in the reports of the Fed, at present, the managers consider the risks to be balanced, which signals more confidence in the interest rate rate against the background of strengthening inflation. All participants of the meeting practically believe that raising rates in the medium term is appropriate. They also expect that the outlook for the economy will continue to improve, which will lead to stronger inflation in the coming months. The main goal, as noted in the Fed, is the inflation rate of 2%.
However, despite all the positive, there are a number of negative points. So, several participants in the meeting wanted to keep their rates unchanged, but first they want to get more data on inflation.
Fed experts also lowered the forecast for GDP growth in the short term, saying that they expect GDP growth at a moderate pace in the first quarter. In the medium term, experts raised the forecast for GDP growth in view of the agreement on the federal budget.
As for the technical prospects of the EURUSD pair, the situation has not changed much compared to yesterday's review.
The main task of buyers of risk assets is now to break the week's highs in the 1.2380 area, which will allow us to count on continuing the upward trend with the renewal of new areas of resistance at 1.2410 and 1.2450. If you do not get beyond the resistance limit of 1.2380, the demand for the US dollar will continue, which will lead to an even deeper downward correction of the trading instrument in the areas of 1.2330 and 1.2300.
Despite data on the growth of commercial oil reserves in the US, oil quotes have increased significantly due to the situation in the Middle East, which increases concerns about possible supply disruptions.
According to the report of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, commercial oil reserves in the US for the week from March 31 to April 6 rose by 3.3 million barrels to 428.6 million barrels. Economists had expected a decline in stocks of 500,000 barrels. Gasoline stocks rose to 238.9 million barrels and distillate stocks fell by 1 million barrels to 128.4 million barrels. The load of oil refining capacities increased to 93.5%.